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It is absolutely that black and white in the near term. A sudden decrease in the supply of oil will cause an equally sudden rise in the price, since the demand is relatively constant.
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Did you even read what I wrote before you answered? I said: "We need to use our oil for gasoline for cars, and develop other greener sources for the rest of our uses."
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That demand is of course due to the fact that our cars are designed to run on gasoline, and that form of demand will take quite a while to change, even when a viable alternative is available. It is not currently available.
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Were you aware there are a good number of mass-produced, affordable, good hybrid cars available right now?
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Over the long term, probably decades, yeah, there is likely to be a superior fuel alternative in most regards, and will render oil-based fuels obsolete.
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I am not saying to get rid of oil, I am saying to decrease our use of it in non-transportation uses. There are plenty of viable alternatives available right now, and we have to embrace them, make them ever more affordable and available.
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But we have a long way to go to get there, and it starts with an invention or discovery that government action cannot accelerate.
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Saying government can't accelerate R & D seems to fly in the face of history. It's not that long a way. Tax credits for alternative fuel uses, approval of nuclear power plants, credits for decreasing one's energy useage, tax credits for R & D into new technology, etc. all have worked in the past - and currently work - to encourage research and development in alternative fuel sources.
I think the problem with alternative fuel is that there seems to be both a lack of education about them, and lack of will to consider embracing them.