5/29-30 (BEL): Vagrancy (G2); NYB Stakes; Met (G1), Sands Pt. (G2)

[blackthroatedwind]

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

Does the raw figure mean that it's just a preliminary figure and will be adjusted? I would have figured a BSF of at least 100 based on the fact that the races prior to Miner's Reserve seemed slow.

In any case, it was nice to see him run back to his maiden win. I never liked him running in the Florida Derby, but I expected him to do better than he did; I suppose he just hated the mud at CD.

[Port Conway Lane]

Did someone mention Dunkirk ?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

Correct, that is what I'm saying... a 1:34 corresponds to a 1:21.25, and a 1:35 corresponds to a 1:22 1/5- so I don't think I'm wrong by much.

[blackthroatedwind]

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

I agree with you that he went about 1:20 4/5. But that being said... the time chart is what it is, and a 1:33.11 is a 134 raw figure, and they clearly used a 14 point variant on the rest of the card.

I think you have a valid point that the time chart parallel might be incorrect at that level, however, and that would explain the difference.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

Well, how long do you think it takes the figure maker to determine the final level? First cut shouldn't take more than a half hour for Beyers. It isn't Thorograph where every runners' path has to be scrutinized, etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

I've done enough thinking for one day....I will stick with what I know.

It's not really a timing thing, per se, right now.