5/30: Belmont Park ($45k C/O)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.

I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.

I agree with you. He's supposed to win this race. I was against I've Got Speed when Tony D brought him back off a similar layoff a couple of weeks ago but that turned out fine. Both I've Got Speed and Redefined had shown some issues off of long layoffs but what Redefined has done on this course is remarkable. I think he goes wire to wire.

The key to a nice Pick 4 today is beating Banrock IMO. Steve pointed out that he prefers ground with a little give and both courses are super firm right now.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The key to a nice Pick 4 today is beating Banrock IMO. Steve pointed out that he prefers ground with a little give and both courses are super firm right now.

NT

These courses now are very similar to the courses at HOL and SA: unless there's a super fast pace or a multi-move setup, you're not passing in the stretch. I've never seen so many horses either unable to stay on righty lead or just flat out lose stride in the lane. Once upon a time, BEL was THE place for closers on the turf. I suppose after taking so many races off the courses, NYRA finally got what they wanted: UNFAIR turf courses.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

These courses now are very similar to the courses at HOL and SA: unless there's a super fast pace or a multi-move setup, you're not passing in the stretch. I've never seen so many horses either unable to stay on righty lead or just flat out lose stride in the lane. Once upon a time, BEL was THE place for closers on the turf. I suppose after taking so many races off the courses, NYRA finally got what they wanted: UNFAIR turf courses.

Sustained soaking rains are the sole cure for firm, dry turf courses. Sprinklers cannot substitute for extended periods of dry weather.

Or are you suggesting that taking races off the turf last fall led somehow to the current condition of the turf? Because so far this meet, there's been a whopping total of 4 races taken off the turf. And I'm still puzzled... Even if 50% of races the last 10 years were taken off the turf, what possible correlation does it have to this spring and the current dry spell and the condition of the grass courses?

[the_fat_man]

I'm saying that prolonged non use makes for harder courses. If you take races off, in some case, a WEEK after it's rained, for an extended period of time, it follows that the course will get harder. Think about it: what's harder, a garden that you dig up every year or one that you never dig up? There's barely NO kickback on the turf these days. It's sad, really.

This really is neither here nor there, as we all adapt to the way the courses are playing. However, the idea, for me, is to play the most fair venues possible. I realize much is made about takeout, field size and the quality of horses but for one playing multiple tracks the idea is to do as little work as possible for the best overall results. Having to watch a ton of races because of a BIAS is not exactly the most productive path.