Monmouth Handle Doubles!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This entire operation is puzzling to me. The objective, apparently is to INCREASE HANDLE. The method utilized is INCREASING purses. The immediate effect is:

1) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
2) MORE MONEY for TRAINERS
3) MORE MONEY for JOCKEYS

Now, correct me if I'm wrong but most gamblers are probably playing from their homes. So, good quality horses and top jocks are not exactly going to be enough of an enticement to get them out of their homes and over to MTH. And, it follows, neither will bigger purses. I mean, the idea is to find advantages in one's plays and it doesn't necessarily follow that there will be more of them in better quality and probably better matched fields.

So, maybe the way to really increase handle is by giving some to the GAMBLER. ****, everyone else seems to be getting theirs. So how about they cut those purses a bit and then cut takeout a bit. Or, maybe, they go the way of WO and KEE and DMR and get TRAKUS so their data can be as accurate relatively as their fields are good.

This is going to fail. The dirt (and turf) course is NOT a FAIR one. Only the DRF/BEYER old schoolers who thrive on the AQU INNER and the present GP meet will be eating this **** up. Everyone else will be at WO and CRC and other fair tracks.

Really?!?
This is about as poor a statement as I've ever heard, especially coming from someone who doesn't like to play chalk.

As for the "fair track" thing... here's a riddle for you:
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 6th, 1st, 2nd (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 11th
1st, 7th (T), 1st, 7th (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 1st (T)

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...h-ibboyee-wins

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...h-ibboyee-wins

Crist did his best to cool the heat. I guess he doesn't believe the state(NJ) will A. get another deal done with AC and B. Is willing to invest somemore money into something that was ultra successful even if it wasnt 100% self funding. I think he is dead wrong. NYRA has zero chance of having VLT's on line before 1/1/11 hence they will need 40 plus mil to get thru '10 and '11. The handle at SPA is going to be down a min of 15% and the NYC OTB situation will be festering in courts and Albany forever.. It's a grim immediate future for NYRA and that sux. BUT when you work for state and the state sux you suck

[10 pnt move up]

I dont see how you could be a serious player and NOT be playing this meet. What would be the reason not to play?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I dont see how you could be a serious player and NOT be playing this meet. What would be the reason not to play?

There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

People should be playing names. Who wouldn't be forced to bet a horse whose dam was Hitched to a Star with Dick Vitale as a part owner? That had to be one of the stronger angles on DP the Facilitator in the nightcap yesterday.

NT

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

People should be playing names. Who wouldn't be forced to bet a horse whose dam was Hitched to a Star with Dick Vitale as a part owner? That had to be one of the stronger angles on DP the Facilitator in the nightcap yesterday.

NT

Lot's of regulars simply play whatever Bravo is riding. They must be estatic with the odds they are getting on some of these horses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There isn't any reason not to play, but there is reason to observe and tread lightly... With a rather bizarre mix of outfits melding into the long-established Oceanport crowd, until there is some established form and trends there will be some completely chaotic results that will be undecipherable based on PP's.

Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

It's probably a little of both....though I tend to side with you. I like the increased possibility of chaos. It probably lends itself better to the Monmouth situation where the amount of work necessary to really handicap the card is so burdensome that a more scattered approach probably increases your chances of getting lucky per se.

The shorter priced horses are probably a little less likely to win and the tails are a little fatter.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by philcski

Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

I think what you want is enough information or insight to determine if there is a good overlay, but as Steve indicates, maybe you won't have enough PP information to have a clear opinion.

It's more like "There's no way in Hell that this horse should be 10-1." But as far as thinking he's the most likely winner -- might not have that insight.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Really?!?
This is about as poor a statement as I've ever heard, especially coming from someone who doesn't like to play chalk.

As for the "fair track" thing... here's a riddle for you:
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 6th, 1st, 2nd (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 11th
1st, 7th (T), 1st, 7th (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 1st (T)

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's probably a little of both....though I tend to side with you. I like the increased possibility of chaos. It probably lends itself better to the Monmouth situation where the amount of work necessary to really handicap the card is so burdensome that a more scattered approach probably increases your chances of getting lucky per se.

The shorter priced horses are probably a little less likely to win and the tails are a little fatter.

Agree with this 100%. Variance is definitely higher- and some races aren't a whole lot of fun, like the Jersey Bred races which have a large majority of the field coming in off a layoff, but say a $10k claimer is a LOT more fun when you have shippers from all over. It's a lot more work, but generally worth the effort. Some may feel different, and I get that approach too (knowing the population inside and out.)

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

OK, sure. But you didn't answer my riddle, which as I knew already you don't listen to anyone so it's not worth trying anyways. For what it's worth, the correct answer was the supposed "fair" track you brought up, Calder, had 7 dirt races on Saturday- 4 were won by the leader at the 1/2 mile call, 2 by the 2nd place horse, and 1 from 7th. 83% speed. How AQU inner runners perform have NO relevance on the track. There were winners shipping from PHA, MTH, GP, MED, KEE, TAM, AQU, AQUI, SAR, CD, DEL, and BEL on the opening weekend.

Despite what the FAT CHARTS wish for- a track "favoring" closers doesn't exist on a regular basis. End of story.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

Dude for someone as smart as you I can't believe you are not tuned into any changes at Monmouth that may influence the front end bias. Information that is in the public domain. I'll leave it at that since information is the key in this game.