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#1
05-21-2010, 07:19 AM
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5/21: Belmont Park ($105k C/O)
Funny how you could see the Belmont carryover slipping away Thursday starting with headscratching win by Eldaafer in the 5th ahead of Kindergaerden Kid in the 6th. While some tickets might have had one or the other on them, it would have been improbable that many had both. And when Tim Ice sent 10-1 Gangbuster, a solid synthetic performer, to an inner turf win in the 8th, the double carryover was assured.
What is always fascinating about the dynamics of the P6 is how Thursday, the sequence in New York looked very plausable and approachable and proved impossible, while the Hollywood skien looked very tricky and basically went chalky with just one winner of more than 5-1. Of course part of Thursday's challenge in Elmont was made much more daunting with the scratch of The Cuff Shooter from the nightcap. And despite finding a successful single of Spacy Tracy in the 7th, I was still only able to get 2 of the winners on the ducat. Friday's Belmont sextet looks well worth trying though... BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Flaming Punch 9-5 3rd Best Value: #4 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 6th Next Best: #5 Illegal Search 5-2 5th 2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Great Cliff 2-1WON Next Best: #6 Amelia the Cat 4-1 4th Best Value: #3 Florida Girl 9-2 2nd 3rd: NYB-CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Next Day 4-1 4th Next Best: #7 Bridge to Nowhere 2-1 WON Exotics Use: #2 Nolite Timere 8-1 3rd 4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #8 Guiseppina 9-2 7th Next Best: #9 Golden Grove 2-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Morningsideheights 6-1 WON Super Add: #4 Mordecai Jones 5-1 5th 5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Remittance 6-5 WON Next Best: #7 Grand Piano Man 3-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Royal Lord 12-1 7th <$50 P4 Play: 2: 1 3: 2-5-7 4: 3-4-5-8-9 5: 4-6-7 1x3x5x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-1/4/6/7-5-6/10) 4 Correct Paid $53.00 6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Al Muhtasib 2-1 3rd Best Value: #8 High Stakes Player 8-1 4th Next Best: #4 Loquacious 5-2 2nd 7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Sterling Silver 5-2 2nd Next Best: #9 Maid of Flowers 7-2 6th Best Value: #6 Pin Turn 12-1 4th Super Add: #8 Mesa Fresca 10-1 WON 8th: C/CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super) NOTE: #11 Matt's a Giant and #1a Fujita BOTH DREW IN... Most Likely: #2 American Cruiser 8-5 WON Best Value: #9 Straight Romance 15-1 6th Next Best: #11 Matt's a Giant 8-1 2nd Super Add: #10 Can't Refuse 15-1 8th 9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super) NOTE: #11 Stormy Dixie DID DRAW IN... Most Likely: #11 Stormy Dixie 3-1 WON Best Value: #6 Genuine Charm 6-1 7th Next Best: #10 Lucida 7-2 4th Super Add: #1 Hill 5-1 5th <$150 P6 Play: 4: 4-5-8-9 5: 6-7 6: 1-4-8 7: 2-6-9 8: 2 9: 11 4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$50 P4 Play: 6: 1-4-8 7: 2-6-8-9 8: 2 9: 6-11 3x4x1x2 = $24 x $2 = $48 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-21-2010 at 04:35 PM. 
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#3
05-21-2010, 09:21 AM
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I'd rate the chances of it carrying again as unlikely, but of course anything can happen. NT
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#4
05-21-2010, 10:26 AM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
3RD: 1 We're Going Mobile Early NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA 4 Game Token Early 4TH: 6 Miss Palm Kat Early 10 Runaway Secret Early 11 Deonzion Early 12 Air Mail Early 5TH: 1A Single Malt Early 2B Sallymasso Early 10 Long Jump Early 6TH: 1A Jadal Early 5 Con the Cat Early 6 Known Gambler Early 7TH: 5 Wicked Ravnina Early 11 Flawless Early 8TH: 1 (poe) Port Royal Early 2B O'Kid Early 3 Khan of Khans Early 9TH: 1A Fantasma Early 4 La Cloche Early 12 Pelican Lake Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-21-2010, 10:40 AM
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hi, nice to see you picked Royal Lord in the 5th. He is one of my partnership horses. He bounces back quickly, and if Channing can keep him close to the pace and not drop to last, and the pace is quick, he may close up for a piece. I do know our trainer has been putting some extra effort in getting him to break better out of the gate, so we'll see!!
jeff. 
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#6
05-21-2010, 10:49 AM
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That's so great.. Best of luck today! Royal Lord seems poised for a good effort.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
05-21-2010, 11:55 AM
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BEL #4 $2 Pick-6 3,4,5,WT,6,WT,1,4,WT,2,3,8,WT,2,6,WT,11 none $ 72.00 - -
BEL #6 $1 Pick-4 1,4,8,WT,2,3,8,10,WT,2,6,WT,7,9,11 none $ 72.00 - - my cheap shot gl hooves
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#10
05-21-2010, 02:20 PM
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Belmont Race 6
$1 PK4 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,6,8,9 / 2,6 / 11 $3 PK4 1,4 / 2,9 / 2 / 11 $52 GL
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#12
05-21-2010, 02:44 PM
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#14
05-21-2010, 02:48 PM
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And Al Muhasib should've been 2:1? I mean, Dominguez and all.
 And the ****er, who quit like a dog going 6F is trying to close going a route? Right............... That's some vintage Kiaran ****.
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#15
05-21-2010, 02:52 PM
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fn hunters bay..burp....
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#16
05-21-2010, 02:59 PM
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Boisterous being 4-1 is a product of Shug, the Phipps silks, good works, and a sexy pedigree. That horse had been dreadful in his prior two starts and with all due respect to the local crowd, the Lloydobler MSW on Wood day was nowhere near the calibe rof MSW that today's race was. NT
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#17
05-21-2010, 03:08 PM
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While we're on the topic of the Juicer Kiaran:
the 2 is clearly the horse to beat in the 7th but I think the 10 has good shot --- and he's a price. The winner last out sat a perfect trip and even though the race pretty much collapsed, this guy ran ok --- and he wasn't exactly straight in the lane. 14:1, however, maybe he didn't get the GOOD elixir.
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#18
05-21-2010, 03:12 PM
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the 3 is going to run big march
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#19
05-21-2010, 03:27 PM
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WOW
after a BRUTAL 2 weeks in terms of photo finishes, I finally got one, at CRC.
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