What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

randallscott35 · #1 05-05-2010, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

slotdirt · #2 05-05-2010, 08:41 AM

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

blackthroatedwind · #3 05-05-2010, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

He already won one.

10 to 12% sounds about right. His odds make him more likely, as TC hopefuls are always WAY overbet in the Belmont, but isn't it hard to believe he can be over 40% in that race....and probably less?

parsixfarms · #4 05-05-2010, 09:59 AM

As the NYS legislature continues to dither, NYRA and the NY racing industry as a whole could really use the financial shot in the arm that would come from Super Saver winning the Preakness. NYRA has been very unlucky on its "big days" recently. Hopefully, that will change and the stars will align for Super Saver in Baltimore.

FATPIANO · #5 05-05-2010, 10:09 AM

Let's see how he does at Pimlico, right now we have an evenly matched group of 3 yr olds, except for Esky. If Super Saver can pull off the Preakness, and stay healthy, I'd give him an excellent chance at Belmont, Look at last years Pilgrim. All Calvin would have to do is ride a few races at Belmont and get comfortable over the track. Go Super Go........

slotdirt · #6 05-05-2010, 10:09 AM

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

randallscott35 · #7 05-05-2010, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

Gate Dancer · #8 05-05-2010, 10:40 AM

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

alysheba4 · #9 05-05-2010, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

.....my 1st visist to belmont.....i loved when smarty was beaten the ping pong paddle looking smarty plauqes were flying. the train outta there reminded me of cal jam 2.

MaTH716 · #10 05-05-2010, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

Antitrust32 · #11 05-05-2010, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

didnt NYRA ban bringing in coolers of beer for Belmont one year? I know Pimlico did, I could be completely wrong.

the beer thing always affects attendence.. Also the weather of course

robfla · #12 05-05-2010, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

randallscott35 · #13 05-05-2010, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

robfla · #14 05-05-2010, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

exactly..

If you like SS you are better off betting him to win the Preakness then parlaying it to the Belmont.

slotdirt · #15 05-05-2010, 08:50 AM

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

NTamm1215 · #16 05-05-2010, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

Monarchos, like the rest of his progeny, got 12 furlongs and I believe Super Saver will too, it's just a matter of how long it will take them.

NT

slotdirt · #17 05-05-2010, 08:56 AM

Monarchos got 12f? When? In one of Jim Squires' dreams?

dalakhani · #18 05-05-2010, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

Is it fair to say that maybe we have a weeeee small sample size?

slotdirt · #19 05-05-2010, 09:19 AM

Maria's Mon had almost 1,000 foals on the ground before he kicked it. How big a sample size do you want?

miraja2 · #20 05-05-2010, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

I don't see how the colt's pedigree is in any way a negative. Maria's Mon over a well-bred A.P. Indy mare indicates plenty of stamina to me.

It seems unlikely that he will win the TC, but I don't think that is because he is lacking in the stamina department in terms of pedigree.