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#1
04-30-2010, 05:09 AM
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4/30: Churchill Downs (1st-12th); Belmont Park (6th-9th)
Frightening forecast for severe weather starting late this afternoon and through Derby Day means this card may be the one to enjoy in its' entirety with tomorrow an unknown. Between Oaks, Rachel Alexandra's second '10 start and three more excellent stakes, there is plenty to like.
The two weeks of 'At the Races' Oaks-Derby coverage wraps this afternoon, and as usual, it's been a deliciously fun fortnight. Hope you have enjoyed the lineups and conversations and insights, and it helps you get started on a successful Triple Crown season. Thanks to the staff at Churchill for an especially warm welcome this year... Full card look for Churchill below as well as the opening day P4 at Belmont Park. Remember that Andy Serling returns tonight on the NYRA website chat, and will certainly have Derby card thoughts as well opinions on Belmont's first Saturday. Enjoy Oaks-Derby/Belmont Opening Weekend! CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 1st: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Tough spot for a layoff returnee (#2 Ravi's Song; 2-1) to go as favorite; Will play against and look for some of the formful prices here instead.. Best Value: #7 Yonakee 6-1 2nd Next Best: #8 Diamond Song 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 Fortune Play 8-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Dixie Pixie 10-1 6th 2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Rigamaro 6-1 3rd Best Value: #3 English Girl 12-1 7th Next Best: #7 Azurite 7-2 WON Super Add: #4 Karen Ann 12-1 10th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Hybrid 9-2 6th Best Value: #12 Bascom Hall 6-1 5th Next Best: #5 Belgrave Square 5-1 4th Super Add: #9 Gigantos 6-1 7th 4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Go for Jan 12-1 5th Next Best: #11 Fuzzy Britches 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Glowing Report 15-1 4th Super Add: #8 Souma 3-1 9th 5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #4 Forest Trail 4-1 3rd-DH Next Best: #11 Danzon 7-2 WON Best Value: #1 Coulee 15-1 2nd Super Add: #10 Deputy Darling 15-1 9th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-3-7 3: 5-10-12 4: 3-4-5-8-11 5: 1-4-11 3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50 6th: 25th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 3-5 2nd Best Value: #2 Morena 20-1 3rd Next Best #3 Zardana 3-1 5th 7th: 22nd KY Juvenile, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #9 Twelve Pack Shelly 3-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Lou Brissie 5-1 WON <$50 P4 Play: 4: 1-3-4-5-8-11 5: 1-2-3-4-10-11 6: 4 7: 7-9 6x6x1x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 8th: 16th Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2 2nd Next Best: #6 Silver Timber 2-1 WON Exotics Use: #7 Starfish Bay 7-2 6th Super Add: #10 Central City 12-1 3rd 9th: 7th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 COOL COAL MAN 4-1 6th Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 5-1 5th Next Best: #3 Macho Again 5-1 7th Super Add: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 WON 10th: 19th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #11 Workin for Hops 12-1 5th Next Best: #1 Setsuko 4-1 4th Exotics Use: #8 Saint Eligius 12-1 7th Super Add: #9 Gleam of Hope 15-1 6th 11th: 136th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby Double, DD, Super) Only way to approach is to stand against Blind Luck within the race and include her in multis; Big performance first dirt (104 Beyer Fantasy effort) can produce adverse reaction, and though Hollendorfer filly gets desired pace to attack, think she comes back to the pack today; Also standing against Lukas' Tidal Pool who has looked off the past two weeks leading up to this sophomore distaffing standard.. Most Likely: #11 Evening Jewel (10-1): Cassidy miss will stalk and pounce first dirt; Couldn't be better fit for this.. 2nd Best Value: #2 Jody Slew (30-1): Woman among girls physically and will grind out trip; Must for exotics plays.. 13th Exotics Use: #1 It's Tea Time (15-1): Arnold's Ashland runner-up continues to develop; Saves all the ground.. 9th Super Adds: #7 Crisp (8-1): Sadler filly has done everything right leading up to weekend; Should advance first dirt.. 7th #12 Ailalea (15-1): Figures to be overlooked and would love it if rains came early.. 5th <$50 P4 Play: 8: 3-6-7 9: 4 10: 1-6-7-8-9-11 11: 1-2-5-7-11 3x1x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45 12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #8 Ready to Sing 2-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Bialy 3-1 WON Best Value: #7 Go Pro 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #3 Wyn Jym 15-1 9th High 5 Play: #2 Awesome Temper 8-1 8th BELMONT PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Fortyninegeorgest. 3-1 WON Best Value: #10 Yukon Gold Rush 10-1 8th Next Best: #6 Untopable 7-2 4th Super Add: #2 Oedipus O'Neal 15-1 2nd 7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Count Catamount 5-2 WON Best Value: #2 Fit 6-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Jess Not Jesse 5-1 2nd Super Add: #11 Little Alex 8-1 6th 8th: 82nd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD, Super) Best Value: #4 Ironman Jon 5-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Bribon 9-5 5th Exotics Use: #8 Convocation 7-2 2nd Super Add: #7 Le Grand Cru 15-1 WON 9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Best Value: #8 Ali's Joy 6-1 8th Next Best: #1 Gilt Edged 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Jacob's Dream 4-1 4th Super Add: #9 Unforgettable P J 20-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 7-10 7: 1-2-4 8: 4-6 9: 1-3-4-7-8-9 2x3x2x6 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-01-2010 at 10:43 PM. 
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#2
04-30-2010, 06:45 AM
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Steve,
Thanks as always for the info and insights. Its been great keeping up with the whirlwind happenings there! Hope you have a very successful weekend. Are you going to be posting any of the Oaks/Derby Doubles, and/or the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3's? Best of luck, enjoy the weekend, and here's hoping Mother Nature cooperates as well for the horses, connections and all those lucky enough to be making the trip this year!
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#3
04-30-2010, 08:16 AM
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Just checked Twinspires, NO PK3's or PK4's are showing up at .50 cent levels! Neither is the ODW Pick-3. Don't know about other ADW's but this is their ADW so I wouldn't count on it.
__________________
“Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light’s winning.”–Rust Cohle – True Detective
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#4
04-30-2010, 08:23 AM
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Steve,
Do you know if Cool Coal Man is running today in the Alysheba, or tomorrow in the CD handicap? I'm really leaning towards Arson Squad in the Alysheba, as of now. Good Luck today and all weekend.
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#6
04-30-2010, 08:37 AM
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Scratches
Race 3 #13 My Piano Man, #14 Infamous Spin, #15 Win It, #16 Sneaky Dreams Race 4 #6 Mallory Square, #7 Kantstopdancin Race 5 #8 Rinterval (IRE), #13 Multipass Race 7 #1 Saturday Dance, #4 Weekend Wildcat, #6 Final Mesa, #8 The Freak Race 10 #2 Alfarabi, #10 Make Music for Me Race 12 #4 Slews Sassy, #5 Maria Darlin
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#7
04-30-2010, 08:47 AM
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Funding them now. Also just rechecked Twinspires and either I looked at it wrong or they corrected it, because the PK3 and PK4 are .50c now.
Good Luck
__________________
“Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light’s winning.”–Rust Cohle – True Detective
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#8
04-30-2010, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Thanks so much... Has been my pleasure as always to have have the opportunity to be here and share whatever I can generate in terms of opinion. Obviously the DRF team has been utterly generous with their time and contributions: Mike Welsch, Jay Privman, Marty McGee the two weeks, plus Steve Crist and Andy Beyer yesterday. It's been a great couple of weeks and I hope everyone profits from the info that was generated. In terms of the multi-day bets, the situation is so strange, that I really don't want to recommend plays too seriously. Here's an idea for a $50 play I'll probably punch: $5 Oaks-Derby Double: 11 with 2-6-10-11-20 ($25) $1 Oaks-Derby Double: 1-2-5-7-12 with 2-6-10-11-20 ($25) Best of luck! Quote:
I think Cool Coal Man looks terrific in there, and he's been absolutely on the muscle these 2 weeks... Every gallop I saw was impressive. Good luck!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
04-30-2010, 09:53 AM
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You list OAKS as race #12 it is actually Race #11
You list OAKS as race #12 it is actually Race #11
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#10
04-30-2010, 10:30 AM
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AQU SCR/CHG'S
6TH 3 Six Gun Sheriff Early 8 Venkman Early 7TH 8 Themanintheglass Early 12 Vindicat Early 13 Run to Grand Ave. Early 8TH 1 (poe) Elusive Warning Early 9TH 2 Dixielore Early 11 Maggie's Prince Early 12 Stone Turtle Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
05-01-2010, 03:47 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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Solid day though, good luck tomorrow.
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