136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[nomad]

1 Lookin at Lucky (Gomez) 3-1 good horse always has trouble
2 Ice Box (Lezcano) 10-1 plods up for show
3 Noble's Promise (W. Martinez) 12-1hard knocker, user
4 Super Saver (Borel) 15-1could finish last
5 Line of David (Bejarano) 30-1same as above
6 Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 30-1peaked
7 American Lion (Flores) 30-1inconsistant
8 Dean's Kitten (Albarado) 50-1nope
9 Make Music for Me (Rosario) 50-1more nope
10 Paddy O'Prado (Desormeaux) 20-1 not terrible
11 Devil May Care (J. Velazquez) 10-1 not on Sat
12 Conveyance (M. Garcia) 12-1will fade
13 Jackson Bend (M. Smith) 15-1could be in the $
14 Mission Impazible (Maragh) 20-1wouldn't be a shock
15 Discreetly Mine (Castellano) 30-1would be a shock
16 Awesome Act (Leparoux) 10-1can't back on form
17 Dublin (Thompson) 12-1the sleeper always close
18 Backtalk (Mena) 50-1no
19 Homeboychris no
20 Sidney's Candy winner catch him if you can

[Antitrust32]

Here's what I'm thinking right now (I have the right to change my opinions before the race)

$2 W Line of David for sentimental reasons

Oaks / Derby Double for #2

Blind Luck, Tidal Pool / Sid Candy, Discreetly Mine, Ice Box (may add another horse or two like Jackson Bend / Super Saver / Dublin)

$1 Exacta wheel

Sid Candy / Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dublin

I'm keying Sid Candy on top and bottom of those horses.

[CSC]

It's hard to fathom that the Jockies for the 2 horses I like in this Derby may be winning riders come Saturday night.

[slotdirt]

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

[tiznowthegreat]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

I said the exact same thing to somebody this morning. I don't like him near as much as others. I think he wants to go further and while his first turf race was solid, it was by no means spectacular. This field didn't turn up soft either. I think a lot of people that were hoping he got into the Derby already had decided they were going to bet him and still will even though its a completely different race.

[slotdirt]

I'm a fan of the horse, but have a sneaking suspicion dirt may be his surface of choice. I get the whole "we came all the way to Churchill, might as well run a race" deal, but I'm not sure this is the right race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

Boy were you right. Opened up at 3-5. Thanks but no thanks.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by CSC

It's hard to fathom that the Jockies for the 2 horses I like in this Derby may be winning riders come Saturday night.

Garcia and Lezcano??

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Garcia and Lezcano??

Thompson(only if the track is fast), Garcia, and Talamo. I know this equals 3 but these 3 horses seemed to be the most talented.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by CSC

Thompson(only if the track is fast), Garcia, and Talamo. I know this equals 3 but these 3 horses seemed to be the most talented.

I have the same feeling about Garcia. First Derby and all but can't see him getting into any real trouble...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

I have the same feeling about Garcia. First Derby and all but can't see him getting into any real trouble...

Conveyance is a very nice horse, that we know, as for the race/pace dynamics it looks congested up front so it will be a challenge. He will be a decent price, without trying to overthink how the race will be run or who will take back or who will gun for the lead. He's less obvious than LAL and SC, so that is a plus.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Here's what I'm thinking right now (I have the right to change my opinions before the race)

$2 W Line of David for sentimental reasons

Oaks / Derby Double for #2

Blind Luck, Tidal Pool / Sid Candy, Discreetly Mine, Ice Box (may add another horse or two like Jackson Bend / Super Saver / Dublin)

$1 Exacta wheel

Sid Candy / Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dublin

I'm keying Sid Candy on top and bottom of those horses.

I'm thinking of exchanging Jackson Bend for Paddy O Prado. Any thoughts?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm thinking of exchanging Jackson Bend for Paddy O Prado. Any thoughts?

I like neither so I can't help.

[otisotisotis]

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front

[otisotisotis]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front

I think there's a good chance he gets squeezed at the start and gets forced to follow.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

[otisotisotis]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

nice knowing ya!!!
just kidding.....i only hit the exacta, but thought it was a nice, even race.

the best moment of the day for me was General Quarters giving the big eff you to Court Vision and his crew...that was great!

[nomad]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

You have a good analysis. You're right that Lucky can't be tossed. My daughter says Dublin should be eliminated but he always tries, the way they've been beating eachother, it just might be his turn. My top is Sidney.

[Antitrust32]

My picks:

Oaks / Derby double

5, 8 / 2, 10, 11, 15, 20


Race 9 tomorrow: $5 win HULL (#6)

Race 11 (Derby) $2 win Line of David (#5)

exacta Key the 20 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17

then the reverse bet of that also.

might do another small Ex box with the 2, 10 & 11


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!