A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy

[Rudeboyelvis]

I think it was Steve Haskins that mentioned that even in the races where he goes to the lead, he closes with the same fractions as the closers - for instance he came home in 35 3/5ths in the SA Derby on the lead. That's going to be near impossible to beat if he gets a decent draw and a clean break.... I know the ride on LaL that day was dreadful, and if he had had an opportunity to contend that day we'd all have learned something more tangible... but still I've gotta use him

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think it was Steve Haskins that mentioned that even in the races where he goes to the lead, he closes with the same fractions as the closers - for instance he came home in 35 3/5ths in the SA Derby on the lead. That's going to be near impossible to beat if he gets a decent draw and a clean break.... I know the ride on LaL that day was dreadful, and if he had had an opportunity to contend that day we'd all have learned something more tangible... but still I've gotta use him

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

thats the question for this horse and the favorite. both prep races were slow paces. this makes a good horse look like a hero. the derby will have the usual desparate types that throw down the gaunlet early. this sometimes discourages horses that have had their own way or causes bad trips for the faves. don't people understand that this is how the giacomos and mine that birds win this race? it changes a little from year to year and who knows what the track will be like. but many years the first tier is dead and the race falls apart at the turn. even big brown and barbaro backed off a little and they were not closers. borail has won two derbies this way in the last three years. i would not bet that horse(candy) at under 12-1. counting on these front runners to suddenly rate is usually a loser in this race, the odds have to be worth the risk. the war emblem type wins are few and far between. monarchos is the last horse to break the 2 minute mark and he came from downtown too. i know, i still have a bellamy road ticket i saved from 5 years ago. its worth diddley. he got to jog around and beat up lesser at a slow pace, a little dirt in the face and some tussle changes the game.

[South Beach Luv]

So he's going to be around 7/2 now?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

With his strings of great works I would guess worse case sceniro he is the second choice and IMO he is the likely chalk now.

Baffert & Lucky with be the choice now.....IMO

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well one of those 2 clearly... Who else is even an option to be chalk? I think Im back on Awesome Act.

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

[chucklestheclown]

Last night I couldn't answer the original question. I am betting him because he will be the best horse in the race, he is the fastest if Sadler wants him to be and I am confident he can rate.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

If you win... I win. I'm on the same two plus one wild card yet to be determined.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

That leaves me with American Lion and Stately Victor