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  #1  
Old 04-21-2010, 10:01 AM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Hey Steve, how'd Conveyance look? He had an ultra fast work as well.
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Old 04-21-2010, 10:05 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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I'll be the first to admit I don't get this blinkers off/blinkers on stuff with Lookin at Lucky. He pulled very hard in the Hollywood Futurity without blinkers, seemed to relax perfectly in the Rebel, now they're taking them off. If this horse is too aggressive early in the Derby he'll get scorched.

NT
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Old 04-21-2010, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I'll be the first to admit I don't get this blinkers off/blinkers on stuff with Lookin at Lucky. He pulled very hard in the Hollywood Futurity without blinkers, seemed to relax perfectly in the Rebel, now they're taking them off. If this horse is too aggressive early in the Derby he'll get scorched.

NT
Come on, Nick. This horse have never won a race in which it didn't get a better trip than the winner. This is your quintessential opportunistic runner. The problem, of course, is that he's just not good enough to run the most and win. Hell, he couldn't win even if he ran in a race where he got an equal trip to the other contenders. He's got 3 wins in matchups with Noble's Promise and the latter got the worst of it all 3 times. He runs well in the Derby if a handful of other horses don't fire or get bad trips. This PLUG is a toss for me.
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Old 04-21-2010, 01:55 PM
stonegossard stonegossard is offline
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I think Stately Victor has a shot here of finishing in the top 5.

Last edited by Kasept : 04-21-2010 at 02:20 PM.
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  #5  
Old 04-21-2010, 02:28 PM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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Originally Posted by the_fat_man View Post
Come on, Nick. This horse have never won a race in which it didn't get a better trip than the winner. This is your quintessential opportunistic runner. The problem, of course, is that he's just not good enough to run the most and win. Hell, he couldn't win even if he ran in a race where he got an equal trip to the other contenders. He's got 3 wins in matchups with Noble's Promise and the latter got the worst of it all 3 times. He runs well in the Derby if a handful of other horses don't fire or get bad trips. This PLUG is a toss for me.
Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.
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Old 04-21-2010, 02:33 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch View Post
Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.
I know this is going to come up numerous times between now and the Derby but how much do you really think that cost him in that race? It is one thing that the horse stayed up and all but literally he lost very, very little ground. He was then able to take advantage of Noble's Promise and Dublin making premature moves to basically collapse the race and that's what TFM is getting at (I think).

As far as the SA Derby his trouble was obviously enough to end his chances of winning but I'm very confident that he was not going to catch Sidney's Candy even if he stayed free of trouble.

NT
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Old 04-21-2010, 03:06 PM
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Agree he wasn't going to catch Candy who was gone behind the soft pace. I also don't think he was primed for either race. To me the biggest positive that can be gleaned from these efforts is the horse's toughness and competitiveness. A lot of top horses would mail it in under similar circumstances...so on paper you have a horse who's top dirt figure compares to all but one, you know he has the right style, trainer, and competitiveness for this kind of race. In a race where trouble is the norm, those things count for a lot.
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Old 04-21-2010, 03:18 PM
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I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.
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Old 04-21-2010, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch View Post
Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.
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Old 04-21-2010, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
Hey Steve, how'd Conveyance look? He had an ultra fast work as well.
IC,

I didn't get a good enough look at Conveyance's work to comment. The new challenge here is all the Derby/Oaks workers out on track at the same time, and I was following Homeboy Kris finishing and then Lookin at Lucky breaking off. Conveyance got lost in the shuffle working in front of Kris. Mike Welsch will have the report on Conveyance, and I heard one of the clockers say he didn't go as well as he had in his first spin here.

EDIT: Just spoke to Welsch. His video analysis is being sent in to DRF now, so watch for it, but he said that Conveyance's effort your typical 'fast horse working fast'. He added as I mentioned that the CD clockers thought he was a bit better the other day because even though he went slower, he was much more relaxed than in today's bullet. Baffert told Welsch he wasn't unhappy with the work, but didn't really want him going that fast.
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-21-2010 at 11:18 AM.
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