DERBY 136: Jocks nearly finalized; Bejarano gets Line of David..

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by philcski

Approximate current mid-market from Betfair (note the takeout is much lower than what is available stateside, but market is a bit thin right now and we should have a better idea of off odds this time next week):
Eskendereya 11/5
Lookin At Lucky 6/1
Sidneys Candy 12/1
Awesome Act 18/1 (offer 15/1, no bids)
Endorsement 19/1
Dublin 30/1
Ice Box 30/1
Super Saver 30/1
American Lion 35/1
Stately Victor 35/1 (offer 27/1, no bids)
Line of David 35/1
Noble's Promise 40/1 (offer 30/1, no bids)
Interactif 50/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Rule 50/1 (offer 35/1, no bids)
Homeboykris 100/1 (offer 65/1, no bids)
Aikenite 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Backtalk 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Conveyance 60/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Mission Impazible 30/1
Deans Kitten 75/1 (offer 50/1, no bids)

Awesome Act looks to be playing the part of the wise guy horse with those odds. I was probably going to take a shot, depending on post-position, but no way at 15-1. I was thinking more like 25 or 30-1. I guess there's so many horses with absolutely no shot, that even horses with marginal talent are going to get bet.

[ninetoone]

I can't see Lookin' at Lucky going off at 6-1. My guess is 4-1 or 9-2. Sidney's Candy I see as 8 or 9 to one.

[slotdirt]

Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.

makes sense

as far as value goes:

lookin at lucky @ 6-1
Ice box @ 30-1
mission impazzible @ 30-1

all seem like solid value plays....


-bt-

[slotdirt]

Absolutely. Not a Mission Impazible fan (as I said last year with Musket Man, the day a half to Forest Camp wins the Derby, American breeders need to hang it up), but Ice Box should run huge, and Lookin at Lucky will be a great play at 6-1.

[NTamm1215]

Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT

He has been shedding weight, he might have a chance fairly soon...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT

Again, Betfair has a takeout closer to 5% than 16%, but looking at 2008 as an example, Big Brown was 2.4-1 and Colonel John was 2nd choice at 4.7-1. If Eskendereya goes off at 2.2-1 then Lookin at Lucky would be over 5-1 as the second choice. I don't think he's going to be lower than 9/2.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT

Sadler gives Court the bad news: "Look I'm sorry, but we're gonna have to go with Chuck Simon on Line of David for the Derby...you know you'd be our guy if nobody posting on DT had wanted the mount."

I've started hearing the wiseguy horses being tossed around. It's always kinda interesting to see people pile on a horse because tips are flying right and left, and I don't know if I missed it, but I never see those horses win the Derby. A lot seem to end up in the middle of the field. Wasn't Saarland one of them? Who are we looking at this year to fill that role?