Derby futures

[The Bid]

I haven't decided to auto toss American Lion yet. I want to decide to,but I havent. The others you have listed I agree with.

I think Impaz and Victor you cannot toss. Impaz had a bad trip at Oaklawn was his first run against those kind. Came back and ran well enough to win,but not well enough to dazzle. He has had pleanty of time between and I think he will at the very least be around till the last bit of the Derby. Victor I know will handle the surface. Kitten cannot stand up on the dirt, and I doubt very seriously Prado is even a good horse. Homeboy and Interactif are auto outs for me.

[Port Conway Lane]

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

I'm with you....it will probably be tough up front, no doubt, but his Florida Derby was really good and it was on dirt. If you like Sidney's Candy, they you are making an assumption that the pace won't cause a complete meltdown. Put the same pace scenario on Rule, look at his figures compared to Candy (or anyone except Esky), and you have one with a shot at 20-1 or better. Of all of the dirt preps this spring, he was the only one that ran fast fractions and had a fast final. Go back through his dirt routes and he was pressed through fast or at least honest fractions, yet still managed to finish well.