Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Are you high, even Beyer used it as an argument last year if memory serves.

Obviously Beyer looks at them....but what percentage of voters do...and even if they do how much would it possibly affect the outcomes?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously Beyer looks at them....but what percentage of voters do...and even if they do how much would it possibly affect the outcomes?

I think Crist used them as well in his arguments...so yea some people do, and my point was if the best in the business do to influence the public with their reasoning than they should be at least somewhat accurate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The 98 Beyer for American Lion in the ILLI Derby is obviously too low.

If you believe the 98 .....

* 2nd place finisher Yawanna Twist regressed a couple points. 2nd time router with a nice trip and being bet hard for Dutrow.

* 3rd place finisher Backtalk went backwards 12 points off his last number

* 4th place finisher Turf Melody went backwards 16 points off of his last number

* 5th place finisher Dave in Dixie went backwards 12 points off of his last number and 23 points off of his two back number.

* 6th place finisher Boulder Creek went backwards 10 points.

* 7th place finisher Stephen's Got Hope went backwards 25 points.

* 8th place finisher Game Ball went backwards 18 points.

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The 98 Beyer for American Lion in the ILLI Derby is obviously too low.

If you believe the 98 .....

* 2nd place finisher Yawanna Twist regressed a couple points. 2nd time router with a nice trip and being bet hard for Dutrow.

* 3rd place finisher Backtalk went backwards 12 points off his last number

* 4th place finisher Turf Melody went backwards 16 points off of his last number

* 5th place finisher Dave in Dixie went backwards 12 points off of his last number and 23 points off of his two back number.

* 6th place finisher Boulder Creek went backwards 10 points.

* 7th place finisher Stephen's Got Hope went backwards 25 points.

* 8th place finisher Game Ball went backwards 18 points.

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

Of course Yawanna Twist and Turf Melody ran worse considering the trips/set-ups they had last time. Yawana Twist has had unbelievably good trips in all his races. This trip was, believe it or not, his toughest. How were Turf Melody's numbers before the Gotham?

Backtalk figures to run worse going longer.

Dave in Dixie? That's funny.

The race was dominated on the front end which makes it harder for the closers to have run to their figures. However, those are some big changes. But, it wasn't much of a field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What about all of the other route races that day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What about all of the other route races that day?

What about them?

And why should I care?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I guess you shouldn't. Obviously the days other 6 route races mean nothing at all.

The key to everything is simply knowing that the heavily raced Yawanna Twist has had easy trips throughout his long career.

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

The variant was not split. I'm also not sure how you think the track was "incredibly slow".

The winner of the 1st was given a lifetime top in career start 24. It was 6 points higher than any in his last 10.

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

Yeah - and a 74, 70, and 74 in his 3 starts before that.

So, in victory, he was lengths slower than in five of his last 6 races. The 54 was when well beaten on a sloppy sealed track.

Everyone else in that field also went backwards. Some severly.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

Four of his last five races were between 61 and 64 - and his last was a 63. He won by 2+ lengths at 5/2 but still ran a couple lengths worse than normal.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

Yes - a 3/1 shot winner improved over his last race by one point when he was beaten a couple lengths at the same class level.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Yeah the winner had obviously returned to ok form ... but he also had a four race stretch of 100, 101, 106, and 99 last year. The 9/1 shot who ran 2nd ran 2 points faster than last time .. and a lot of beaten horses made big backward moves.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

It seems like 1 point was shaved off of the ILL Derby... and since it was longer than those other races and involved more running into head-wind .. shouldn't it be the other way if any?

[cmorioles]

Drugs, we can do this all day.

First, you ignored the 1st race.

The third, the horse was dropping from two poor races at 10k to 4k. He is in the hands of a very poor trainer after being claimed 3 back. If you want to believe he ran back to his good races, good luck.

The 4th was a brutal pace for those cheap fillies. Of course they are going to run slower. It was 20 points faster than the speed figure.

In the fifth, it could be possible the horse improved a little more, but did you look at the horses behind him? Also, the pace was about 8 points faster than the final time, and since the winner actually led from the 1/2 call home, the 75 is probably a little better than it looks. Giving him even higher would be unrealistic.

I agree the 9th is the toughest to judge. I think the runner up is the best horse to judge for the figure. He was given a lifetime top, basically a pair up, in his 19th career start while being beaten pretty easily.

As for the general "a lot of beaten horses made big backwards moves"...all I can say is no sh!t, that is why they were beaten. I realize the horses had a headwind coming home, but even after adjusting for this the paces of the routes were honest to fast. By far the slowest was the Illinios Derby in relation to final time. This causes lots of horses to move backwards when they are beaten.

R1: Fast 11
R3: Fast 3
R4: Fast 20
R5: Fast 8
R7: Slow 6
R9: Fast 8

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Drugs, we can do this all day.

I know.

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh, wait, I got it. You're just pissed that the figure came back what it did because you wanted to post some " look at me " thread about why the figure wouldn't be predictive.

Don't worry.....you had a decent backup plan.

[blackthroatedwind]

But don't worry about it....you can always go to escoteric and post something about one of your brother's ex-girlfriends and a sock.

Or, better yet, say something about " why all the hating on DrugS. "

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have 4 brothers and I can't even name a single ex gf of theirs.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have 4 brothers and I can't even name a single ex gf of theirs.

I didn't realize names were necessary.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Only you and The Fat Man can make an 8 point difference of opinion with a speed figure into something personal.