Keeneland Spring notes

[philcski]

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

[philcski]

Day 3 4/7/10: Strong closers' bias, which makes sense as there was a strong south wind so the frontrunners were running into it all the way down the backstretch and at 7F or the Beard course that is the majority of the race. Upgrade runners that ran on the pace especially those that stayed on well.

R2: Strong performance from winner FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR, discount 3rd place finisher LOVEYOU EVERYBODY who was especially dull at 4/5.

R3: Upgrade TAHOE LAKE, who made a strong move down the backstretch while wide before flattening out. Probably not good enough to win a MSW at KEE but would be tough on a drop.

R4: Discount the performances of TANGLED SHEETS and BENTON DRIVE, who basically rode the bias to the win and show. Upgrade TAIF who made multiple moves while contending the pace.

R6: Upgrade MOYERS POND, who put in a strong move from the front of the pack while 4 wide to finish 2nd, and SHORE DO who took over the front and held well after the runaway speed collapsed. Discount TEND, who clunked up for 4th but the running line looks better than it really was.

R7: Moderate pace on the turf course meant the front runners held reasonably well, but upgrade the winner MISS KELLER who was dynamite and should be a stakes horse in the future. CONSEQUENCE was easily best of the speed; SWEETEST SONG and LA MOUSSE should be discounted.

R8: Strong performance from FRANNY FREUD, the only wire to wire/pace winner all day. Obviously she's among the top 2-3 3yo filly sprinters so this isn't a revelation. None of the other runners will win at this level.

R9: Huge performance from the Sam Houston shipper ZIPPIN E at 44-1, moved too early and still managed a strong 2nd. Wins next out with a more patient trip.

[chucklestheclown]

All these views and no replies...so thanks philcski.

[pweizer]

This is very good stuff. I thank you as well.

Paul

[philcski]

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

[chucklestheclown]

Do not worry...I saw today...except for the Wiley which got lost when I went to record NBC.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

I appreciate your efforts very much.

Paul

[philcski]

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

First bet back wins and pays $9.40.

[philcski]

Day 8 4/14/10: Several wire jobs and those that weren't were pretty heavy favorites; I think it's fair to say speed was good again at least at sprints. The one route race was inconclusive and should probably be reviewed on its own.

MAX THE KNIFE made a decent rally to get up for 2nd but I believe the margin of victory understates what the true result was; ENNIS was wrapped up and measured while MTK made his final thrust. Would downgrade BLACK PATCH, who just quit after looking comfortable and probably needs to go back to MNR.

Only one worth betting back from the 3rd, FURILLO, who just blew these away with a strong move exiting the turn. Everyone else should be ignored. Asmussen grabbed DUMBLEDORE out of here... I would wonder why.

Would take a strong look at PROUD JARED next out. Got off slow and looked like he didn't know what he was doing out there but then when asked he picked off 4 horses in a flash entering the turn. Flattened out after the big move but would expect major improvement in the second start. DEETS obviously ran well for his debut but have to think some of it was bias aided.

Oddly run race in the seventh, reminiscent of the early Keeneland poly where glacial fractions would still have frontrunners collapse. If anybody still wonders whether Tampa is a good place to winter, the top two were coming out of there. On paper a premature move from GORE BAY, but in truth she stopped running as soon she made the front. Would be hesitant on this one.

[alphanumeric1]

Originally Posted by philcski

First bet back wins and pays $9.40.

Good work. I appreciate your analysis. Thanks.

[philcski]

Some entry notes:


Hyracotherium is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/3 should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch.



Tangled Sheets is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/7 Discount the performance rode the bias to the win



Wandaful Wandaful is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/10 pretty good trip sitting just behind the threesome dueling for the lead and showed very little resistance when EMPIRE SPRING went right by



Holy Moment is entered to run on April 23, 2010, at ATLANTIC CITY.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/3 dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.


Full Entries for Race



Race: 4 - 5:00 PM Exacta / Trifecta

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse: $ 27,000. For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 116 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. (horses Which Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts Preferred). One And One Eighth Miles. (Turf)

PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
7 Holy Moment 4/F L A. R. Napravnik 123 H. Graham Motion


Looks like HOLY MOMENT may have found an ideal spot for a bet back. Curious to see the PP's for this race.

[philcski]

Day 9 4/15/10: Very warm and not much wind; the track played relatively fair with no apparent pace or path biases.

Pretty impressive performance from PARIOLI'S TRICK, who sustained a long drive to score at 13-1 on the outside. The fractions were pretty average for this level so I think he deserves an upgrade. KATOLAK COWBOY would be tough on a return to Chicago at the same level.

ELLIDAY had to check mildly several times and when a hole finally appeared to open it got shut off and he had to take up a bit and was wrapped up after that; worth a look on a drop to straight claimers where she could get to the front with a cleaner trip.

While I'm sure it's not her best surface and was off a long layoff, HEART ASHLEY was lucky to win a photo after setting very moderate fractions. I'd play against her on any upward class move. BEST LASS was clearly best rallying strongly after those fractions late.

Pretty destructive pace battle between TIZ STORMY NOW, KITTY'S DREAM, and USE SOMEBODY, especially for a group of first time starters. Note the fractions were faster than the previous race... at a longer distance. Would take a long look at any of these at CD.

GOLD MEDALLION is not a router. Not sure what the bettors were thinking when he opened up 4/5 and and ended as 2nd choice; going 5F on the turf at GP to 9F at KEE is just about impossible, and he proved that after setting glacial fractions only to get crushed by MINT CHIP who was very impressive off the layoff.

Dreadful DQ in the last for 4th as JAZZ DANCER bumped HOW ABOUT ALEXIS mildly as the latter was fading and beaten; anyways, SHEZA HEARTBREAKER was certainly that as she ran just as well as the winner at 11-1. Almost a cinch next out at the same level.

[dalakhani]

Good stuff phil.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Good stuff phil.

Thanks!

*******
Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY

This one goes in the first today and is 7/2 ML. Somewhat chilly and calm conditions today, I expect the track to play fair.

[dalakhani]

Good call Phil. Jockey made a way early move.

[philcski]

Day 10 4/16/10: Speed was good in routes based on a three race sample size (one of them a horse that towered over the rest, so essentially 2 races) but the track was relatively fair in sprints.

LAND OF THE GIANTS could not have been more impressive. Set reasonable but quick fractions and just annihilated this field, I would not be surprised to see this one win some stakes soon.

Pretty weak group in the 3rd and outside of the top 2 I would avoid all the others going forward. SYLVAN SAINT was wide throughout and deserves another shot but the rest are a toss in similar conditions.

Merry go round race in the 4th with virtually no passing; the entire group was unimpressive but I'd draw a line through the race for all.

Even though the time doesn't reflect it, I'd argue that the 5th was the better division of the 30K MCL's. RAMYA ran much better than the final margin indicates; she held well till the top of the stretch with decent fractions. MINTS N THE VALLEY made a little move mid race and while she may not win next out she is a threat to hit the board at a big price if she can sustain it a little longer. MIHRIMAH deserves another look at CD. Discount MY FAST FRIEND and KLEA next out who showed very little with a good setup against a group they should have beaten.

Previously highlighted NEW PAIS blows away the 7th race, not a whole lot to get excited about otherwise. A NY bred, we could see this one in some NYB stakes in the future. CHAIRMAN missed the break from the inside and rallied nicely to get 3rd.

Clement runs 1-2 in the Doubledogdare; pretty unimpressive for the level, however. I'd hesitate to bet any of them in stakes going forward.

CRUZATTE was much the best in the finale, getting shuffled back down the backstretch and having to change lanes multiple times. Discount SMARMY and SATYRS, whose running line looks much better than it really was.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

This has turned out to be quite a key race. 2nd place finisher Buckleupbuttercup came back to win the Eight Belles at 7-1, 3rd place finisher Dynazaper won the Edgewood at 8-5, 7th place Funny Feeling won a good optional claimer at 7-1 on Oaks day, and last place Hilda's Passion won an optional claimer at 11-1 at Arlington. Canadian Storm goes in the 10th at Churchill today, 5-1 ML in a 6 horse field, and while she looks to be in tough her performance in that race was pretty strong- had some traffic issues and still managed a 4th.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.
The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

Looking forward to this weekend philly.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Looking forward to this weekend philly.

10-1