How a horse improves by 20+ lengths in a month...

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by jms62

Combining the starters from post 9 and out doesn't give you a realistic picture. Only 1 horse can win a race and based upon your 62/265 stat there were 265 races. Post 8 and out has won 66 of the 265 races.

But there were 907 starters outside. If you want to expand it, you should compare posts 1-3 vs posts 8+.

[tiggerv]

There is a very strong inside bias at 1M 40y at FG but the bias is much less at 1 1/16 and there isn't enough data at 1 1/8 to determine.

FG 1-year race stats (so slightly different from Drugs)

1 40y - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 62 winners/182 races 34%
1 40y - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 24/182 13%

1 1/16 - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 21/85 25%
1 1/16 - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 18/85 21%

1 1/8 - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 0/3 0%
1 1/8 - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 2/3 66%

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

There is a very strong inside bias at 1M 40y at FG but the bias is much less at 1 1/16 and there isn't enough data at 1 1/8 to determine.

FG 1-year race stats (so slightly different from Drugs)

1 40y - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 62 winners/182 races 34%
1 40y - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 24/182 13%

1 1/16 - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 21/85 25%
1 1/16 - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 18/85 21%

1 1/8 - Inside (Post 1 and 2) 0/3 0%
1 1/8 - Outside (Outside 2 posts) 2/3 66%

Thanks for this. Confirms my suspicions about the "route" bias.