Change of Plans for Lava Man

[Gander]

Hey Repent. Your beloved English Channel had a very cozy trip behind Cacique in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day but could do no better than a close 4th, getting passed by 2 horses in the stretch that came from a zip code away. Because English Channel didnt go by Cacique, he must suck right? He also could do no better than 4th in the Arl Million losing ground in the stretch. He must really suck. Please explain how you put this horse on such a higher ground than the Tin Man.

Originally Posted by Gander

Hey Repent. Your beloved English Channel had a very cozy trip behind Cacique in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day but could do no better than a close 4th, getting passed by 2 horses in the stretch that came from a zip code away. Because English Channel didnt go by Cacique, he must suck right? He also could do no better than 4th in the Arl Million losing ground in the stretch. He must really suck. Please explain how you put this horse on such a higher ground than the Tin Man.

Tim,
EC has won two grade one's this year. And you keep referring to losing ground in the stretch, yeah wide behind a 1:15, even little kids understand why noone will make up ground on that.
If you want Tim, name the amount, the two of em heads up I will take EC if they meet again.

[Gander]

It was actually Rupert who kept referring to losing ground in the stretch.
And if the price is right and money is put up front, I'll make a head to head matchup between those 2.

Tim this is getting old its pretty obvious that a fluky pace like none other in the HISTORY of the Arl Million allowed the Tin Man to win, in an effort worthy of victory.
But you are attempting to use one race with an extremely fluky set of conditions as a basis that he is superior overall to the other hores in there.
If you want to believe this then fine, but its not really logical to expect most people to agree.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Tim this is getting old its pretty obvious that a fluky pace like none other in the HISTORY of the Arl Million allowed the Tin Man to win, in an effort worthy of victory.
But you are attempting to use one race with an extremely fluky set of conditions as a basis that he is superior overall to the other hores in there.
If you want to believe this then fine, but its not really logical to expect most people to agree.

You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

.

You're assuiming The Tin Man and Cacique started sprinting at the same time. To me, the The Tin Man started sprinting BEFORE Cacique, thus opened up a significant lead.. Cacique(Prado) reacted to Tin Man's move and started speeding up as well. I was impressed with Cacique's ability to close ground under those circumstances. (bottom line, they're both very nice horses and I look forward to a possible rematch on BC day--with many others in the mix as well!!) And I give Tin Man all the credit in the world for dictating that pace and getting he job done.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

You're assuiming The Tin Man and Cacique started sprinting at the same time. To me, the The Tin Man started sprinting BEFORE Cacique, thus opened up a significant lead.. Cacique(Prado) reacted to Tin Man's move and started speeding up as well. I was impressed with Cacique's ability to close ground under those circumstances. (bottom line, they're both very nice horses and I look forward to a possible rematch on BC day--with many others in the mix as well!!) And I give Tin Man all the credit in the world for dictating that pace and getting he job done.

Are you saying that Prado was sitting chilly on the horse after they straigthened away in the stretch? Both horses were all out once they straightened away in the stretch and TTM ran away from Cacique. When two horses are head and head as they straighten away in the stretch, no jockey is going to intentionally let the other horse pull away by 3 lengths. Prado simply didn't have the horse to keep up. He got outsprinted. Even Oracle admitted that Cacique does not have the burst of speed that TTM has.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Gander

Hey Repent. Your beloved English Channel had a very cozy trip behind Cacique in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day but could do no better than a close 4th, getting passed by 2 horses in the stretch that came from a zip code away. Because English Channel didnt go by Cacique, he must suck right? He also could do no better than 4th in the Arl Million losing ground in the stretch. He must really suck. Please explain how you put this horse on such a higher ground than the Tin Man.

Cacique is a fast horse,
Enlglish Channel is a fast horse,
Grey Swalllow is a fast horse,
Relaxed Gesture is a fast horse.

the tin man is a slow horse.

see the difference?

you and richi can take turns whacking the tin man off all you want(hes a gelding so its not going to be all that productive),
but the bottom line is that he has NEVER shown he can beat top class competition unless he gets away with a ridiculously slow pace.

even when he did get away with a slow pace in the 2002 BCT, he still lost to a weak running of the race.

now please, unless you are somehow going to magicaly make the fractions in the ArlMillion faster, shut the hell up about the horse.
Or at the very least, stop trying to convice me that he is faster than form would indicate.
I dont give a sh*t how good you think he is.
hes not going to win the BCT.

but like I have always asked,
please bet your last dollar, your wife's last dollar, your parents' last dollar and everyone other dollar you can borrow on the tin man on Nov 4.
I want your freaking money.



Repent