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#1
02-16-2010, 06:29 PM
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They have covered 7 straight and i think they are 7-2 overall against the line since the change. Rutgers is Ripe for a letdown after the big win against gtown. However, laying money on a team favored by 4 that is 8-16 is not my idea of a good bet. We should set up a coach like selection section for college hoops. I bet you guys would kill it. 
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#2
02-16-2010, 10:56 PM
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Rutgers comes through. I'm happy with the way they've been playing lately at home, might be too little too late for Fred Hill though.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#3
02-17-2010, 11:49 AM
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#4
02-19-2010, 03:37 PM
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2/19 update:
http://countdowntomarch.blogspot.com Big 12 (6) CURRENTLY IN: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri WORK TO DO: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech Baylor and Missouri likely locked up bids this week, and the Big 12 is one of the more sturdy conferences. They'll get six in, possibly seven, but Oklahoma State has a tough road to hoe to get there. The Cowboys (RPI: 32) host Baylor on Saturday, then go to Texas on Wednesday. Their reward if they manage to escape those two games? Kansas in Stillwater next Saturday, then a visit to Texas A&M on 3/3. If OSU can split those four games (a tall order), then hold serve against Nebraska at home to close the season, they'll be 9-7 in the #1 RPI conference. Yet I'm not sure that puts them in, as they have nothing resembling a quality nonconference win. They're 2-4 against the RPI Top 50, with the road win at Kansas State holding as their signature win. Assuming can steal a game or two in their next four, they'll be one of the more interesting bubble cases in the country. Texas Tech is mentioned only because of its 42 RPI, but the Red Raiders, at 4-7 in the league, would have to win out to have a shot. With Texas, Kansas State and Baylor (all at home) remaining, that's unlikely. Big East (5) CURRENTLY IN: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh WORK TO DO: Marquette, Louisville, Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida, Seton Hall And from the firmest bubble conference, we go to the most muddled. Five teams in the Big East are locks, and there are up to six more on the bubble. Of the six, Marquette and Louisville are the likeliest inclusions, but both have potentially fatal flaws. The Golden Eagles have good wins over Xavier (neutral) and Georgetown (home), but sport an RPI of just 70, and missed a chance to lock up a bid against Pitt at home last night. They now go on the road for three straight (Cincinnati, St. John's, Seton Hall) before returning home to face Louisville and Notre Dame. 3-2 down the stretch would ease tensions a bit in Milwaukee. Louisville has a stronger RPI (30) and the Cardinals have turned it on in conference play, but they also lack a serious nonconference win. They also have ugly home losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte that may offset some of the goodwill earned with the road win at Syracuse. After visiting DePaul on Saturday, the Cards finish with Georgetown (home), Connecticut (away), Marquette (away) and Syracuse (home). They're 8-5 in conference, 10-8 should put them in decent shape, but they may want to get to 11-7 just to be safe. I wrote about UConn a bit yesterday, and the bottom line is the Huskies need to get to .500 in conference. That means going 4-1 the rest of the way (at Rutgers, vs. West Virginia, vs. Louisville, at Notre Dame, at South Florida), and if they really want to feel good, they should probably sweep the WVU and Louisville games. Cincinnati is 6-7 in the Big East, but the Bearcats' nonconference wins (neutral courts over Vanderbilt and Maryland) keep them in the discussion. They also played Gonzaga and Xavier very tough, and sweeping fellow bubble team UConn doesn't hurt, but like the Huskies, Cinci has to get to .500 in the league to feel confident, and the 'Cats road to 9-9 is significantly tougher. They host Marquette on Sunday, then get DePaul at home on Wednesday before finishing at West Virginia, vs. Villanova and at Georgetown. South Florida kept hope alive by beating the Bearcats at home, but the Bulls' hopes are still shaky. They've got no good nonconference wins and despite the wins at Georgetown and vs. Pitt, they also have home losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. They have a relatively easy schedule down the stretch, hosting St. John's, Providence and UConn. They visit DePaul and have a huge game Wednesday at Villanova. A win there would do wonders for USF's tournament hopes. Even if they don't get that one though, they have a reasonable shot at finishing 10-8 in the Big East, which might be enough to make the committee overlook the scant nonconference profile. Seton Hall's chances are still on life support, but three straight wins to get to 6-7 in the league and the Pirates' RPI of 51 at least keeps them in the discussion. Their best nonconference win came at Cornell, and they don't really have a signature win in conference, so they'll have to get to at least 10-8 to be considered. Overall, it looks like the Big East will likely get seven teams, with a chance at an eighth or possibly a ninth. But the premature 10+ team talk was, as it is every year, baseless. ACC (6) CURRENTLY IN: Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Georgia Tech WORK TO DO: Clemson Seven teams alive, only two teams rightful locks. When all's said and done, I think most or all of these seven will get in, but there are flaws to all but Duke and Wake Forest. Virginia Tech looks solid at 21-4 and 8-3 in the league, but the Hokies played a very weak nonconference slate, with their only somewhat notable win coming against Seton Hall in Puerto Rico. They're only 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so with road games against Duke and Georgia Tech and a home tilt with Maryland left, it might behoove them to win at least one of those games. Maryland has nonconference issues as well despite being 8-3 in the league, and the Terps are just 2-7 against the RPI top 50. Both wins came over Florida State, and Maryland enters a tough stretch: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson, at Virginia Tech and vs. Duke. A split would likely get the Terps in. 1-3 and it gets a little dicey. Florida State has a few solid wins, beating Marquette on a neutral court and winning at Georgia Tech. The Seminoles beat the Yellow Jackets at home as well and also beat Virginia Tech, but were swept by Maryland. They finish at North Carolina, vs. Clemson, vs. Wake Forest and at Miami (FL). Like with Maryland, I think a split gets Florida State in, while 1-3 would put them in a more precarious spot. Georgia Tech is another ACC team with a mediocre nonconference profile, but the Yellow Jackets did beat Siena at home and Charlotte on the road. They also have the win over Duke and the home thrashing of Wake, so they should be in good shape, but at just 6-6 in the league, nothing's guaranteed. The Bees also finish at Maryland, vs. Boston College, at Clemson and vs. Virginia Tech. Five wins against the RPI top 50 should be enough to get them in at 8-8, but will it do the trick at 7-9? Clemson has rebounded to beat Maryland and Florida State at home after losing three straight, and the Tigers have a big neutral court win over Butler in the nonconference. However, they're 6-5 in conference and 3-5 against the RPI top 50 with a brutal schedule to end the season upcoming. After hosting Virginia, the Tigers have to play away games at Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest with a home game against Georgia Tech sprinkled in. Clemson has to go at least 2-3 down the stretch to feel OK, and perhaps 3-2 to be totally confident. 7-9 in a slightly down year for the ACC probably won't cut it. SEC (3) CURRENTLY IN: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt WORK TO DO: Florida, Mississippi, Mississippi State Sigh, it was only weeks ago that the SEC looked poised to get five, maybe even six teams into the dance, but now? Mississippi State and especially Mississippi blew chances this week to solidify their resumes, and Florida got smacked by Xavier at home on Saturday. It may end up only being the three locks that we'll see in mid-March. The Gators are clinging to nonconference wins over Michigan State (neutral) and Florida State (home) and their only real ugly loss was the home defeat to South Alabama. So far, they've proven unable to make a dent against the SEC's big three, but they'll get another crack at all three down the stretch, putting them in a better position than either of the Mississippi schools, who only have one remaining meeting with Tennessee between them. Florida visits Ole Miss tomorrow, then gets Tennessee at home on Tuesday. Then the Gators go to Georgia, play Vandy at home and finish the season at Kentucky. 2-3 in that stretch would probably leave them short, they could make a solid case with 3-2, and if they can finish 4-1, they're in. The Rebels lost a game they couldn't really afford to lose on Thursday, falling at home to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss still has a neutral court win over Kansas State to point to, but at 5-6 in the fifth-ranked RPI conference, the Rebs pretty much have to win out to be considered. Mississippi State fell in OT against Kentucky, but did so without Ravern Johnson, who was suspended, and with Jarvis Varnado in foul trouble. Still, at just 1-3 against the RPI top 50, the Bulldogs may have seen their best tournament chance fall by the wayside. They also have to win out to have a chance, with their season finale at home against Tennessee standing as their last regular season chance for a signature win. Big Ten (5) CURRENTLY IN: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois WORK TO DO: Minnesota The Big Eleven has four locks, and Illinois would be closer to a lock if it didn't have such a tough finish to the season looming. The Illini are in very good shape at 9-4 in the league with solid nonconference wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt, but after getting crushed at home by Ohio State following up two big wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin, they finish the season thusly: at Purdue, at Michigan, vs. Minnesota, at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin. Ouch. A schedule like that can turn 9-4 into 10-8 in a hurry, especially for a team as schizophrenic as Illinois. 2-3 in that stretch likely gets them a bid, but if they can only snag one win, they'll head into the Big Ten tournament with work left to do. Minnesota is on life support at 6-7 in the conference, but the Gophers aren't completely dead yet, thanks to a big home win over Wisconsin last night. They host Indiana and Iowa and get Purdue at home. They have to go to Illinois and Michigan. 3-2 in those five games probably won't get them in, but if they can find a way to finish 4-1 (they also have wins over Butler and Ohio State), they'll be right in the thick of things. Mountain West (2) CURRENTLY IN: New Mexico, BYU WORK TO DO: UNLV, San Diego State New Mexico has locked up a bid, and despite BYU only being 2-3 against the RPI top 50, the Cougars are pretty much a lock as well. UNLV was on its way to a bid, but the Runnin' Rebels have lost three straight, including a second loss to Utah on Wednesday. UNLV has three wins over the RPI top 50, including a big road win at New Mexico, and luckily for the Rebs, they finish the season vs. Colorado State, vs. TCU, at Air Force and vs. Wyoming. As long as they don't slip up and drop one of those games, they should be OK. San Diego State, on the other hand, faces a pretty big game on Wednesday at BYU. The Aztecs have a solid computer profile and are 8-4 in the league, but they're just 2-4 against the RPI top 50, with no nonconference work to speak of. There's a big difference between 2-5 against the top 50 and 3-4, and winning in Provo is damn near impossible. A win there would likely put SDSU over the hump. A loss doesn't kill them, but they'll definitely be sweating it out if they don't win the MWC tourney, and if you recall, they weren't given any breaks by the committee last year. Atlantic 10 (3) CURRENTLY IN: Temple, Richmond, Xavier WORK TO DO: Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Saint Louis How about a hand for the A-10, folks? There's a distinct possibility that it could get SIX teams into the tournament! That would be a record for the conference, with the previous high being five (1997, 1998). Temple and Richmond have already done enough to get there, and it'll be the first bid since 2004 for the Spiders. Xavier got a much needed nonconference win at Florida on Saturday, which was also the Muskies' fourth win against the RPI top 50. They should be in good shape. Rhode Island, Dayton and Charlotte all have decent cases, but recent struggles have dropped URI and Charlotte back onto the bubble. The Rams have dropped three straight, including a road loss to Saint Louis on Wednesday, and they're just 2-4 against the RPI top 50. They finish vs. Fordham, at St. Bonaventure, vs. Charlotte and at Massachusetts. The game against Charlotte is a must for URI, and they probably shouldn't drop any of the other ones either if they want to feel safe. Dayton looks to be in good shape, with two good nonconference wins (Georgia Tech on a neutral court, Old Dominion at home) on the profile, a 25-point destruction of Xavier and several solid showings against the likes of Villanova, Kansas State and New Mexico. The Flyers have two ugly losses at Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis, and they need to finish strong to ice a bid. Two big road games loom, as Dayton visits Temple on Wednesday and Richmond on 3/4. They'd do well to at least split those two games if they want to lock up an invite before the A-10 tourney. Charlotte has had two unsightly losses after winning seven straight. The 49ers got crushed by 28 at Dayton, then came home and lost to Duquesne. They do have the big road win over Louisville in the nonconference, but that was a much different Cards team than the one that won at Syracuse. Charlotte is 3-6 against the RPI top 50, and it has a tough schedule to finish the season that will likely decide the Niners' fate. They host Xavier tomorrow, before hosting Saint Joseph's Wednesday. Then they go to George Washington before finishing at Rhode Island and home against Richmond. Even at 8-3 in the league, they probably need to go 3-2 down the stretch to get serious consideration. If, however, they manage to go 4-1, they're in. Saint Louis has worked its way into the discussion by winning five in a row, including back-to-backs over Dayton and Rhode Island. Obviously, the Billikens' lack of a good nonconference win and losses to Bowling Green and Iowa State hurt big time, but they are 3-2 against the RPI top 50 and 8-3 in the league. They also have games left with Xavier (home, Wednesday), Temple (home, 3/3) and Dayton (away, 3/6). If they manage to win two of those games, plus beat UMass (away) and Duquesne (home), they'd actually have a pretty damn good case. Pac-10 (0) CURRENTLY IN: Nobody WORK TO DO: California, USC, Arizona State, Washington Crikey, this is a bad league. It's looking more and more like only the winner of the conference tournament will get in. Even the supposed best team in the league (Cal) has a grand total of zero wins against the RPI top 50. The Golden Bears also just came off a humiliating 16-point loss at Oregon State and can do little to improve their profile except try to complete a sweep of Arizona State. Believe it or not, it's probably USC, home losers to Loyola Marymount, Washington State and Nebraska (not to mention road losers to Stanford and both Oregon schools), that has the best at-large case in the conference. Despite those losses, the Trojans beat Tennessee (home), St. Mary's (neutral), UNLV (neutral) and Cal (home), giving them four wins over the RPI top 50. Washington has one, and is 7-7 in conference as opposed to USC's 8-5. Arizona State has one, and is 8-5. If Cal or USC win out, they might have cases, but otherwise, it's very tough seeing a second team come out of this league. Conference USA (0) CURRENTLY IN: Nobody WORK TO DO: UTEP, UAB, Memphis, Tulsa, Marshall Nobody in C-USA has a particularly strong at-large case, but I suppose the best arguments would be for UAB (20 wins, home win over Butler), UTEP (10-1 in conference, wins at Memphis and UAB) and Memphis (close losses to Kansas, Gonzaga, Tennessee, 9-2 in league). This looks like a one-bid league at present, but with a soft bubble, you never know. CAA (1) CURRENTLY IN: Old Dominion WORK TO DO: Northeastern, William & Mary, VCU One of the most intriguing bubble conferences, with only Old Dominion having likely locked up a bid (unless they get embarrassed by Northern Iowa tonight), but several others floating around at-large territory. William & Mary has the quality wins (at Wake Forest, at Maryland, vs. Richmond), but the Tribe also has the bad losses (vs. UNC-Wilmington, at James Madison). Northeastern has the 13-3 conference record, but also has nine losses and a five-game early season losing streak to live down. VCU has quality nonconference wins over Richmond and Rhode Island, but was swept by Northeastern and has losses to George Mason and James Madison. But the Rams have four wins over the RPI top 50, with another game at Old Dominion to finish the season. If they can sweep ODU and get to five top 50 wins, it might be tough to keep them out, even with four losses to RPI 100+ teams. It's going to be a hell of a finish in the CAA, and 3+ bids is not an impossible scenario. OTHERS FROM ONE-BID LEAGUES CURRENTLY IN: Gonzaga, Butler WORK TO DO: Utah State, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's
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#6
02-21-2010, 02:01 PM
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#7
02-21-2010, 03:38 PM
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#8
02-21-2010, 04:25 PM
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__________________
"Always keep your heads up and act like champions." Coach Paul Bryant
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#9
02-21-2010, 05:30 PM
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#10
02-21-2010, 09:54 PM
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#11
02-22-2010, 03:55 AM
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#12
02-22-2010, 09:59 PM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#13
02-26-2010, 05:52 PM
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2/26 update:
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#14
02-27-2010, 07:54 PM
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dala, another low-major team that could take down a 3 or 4-seed is Murray State. But that's if the Racers can get by Morehead State in the OVC tourney. Both of those teams are quality.
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Hybrid Mode
