2/12-14: Derby Future Wager - Pool 1

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree. I just don't see an immediate way to weigh the extra odds you get with the chance your horse might win and you still not get paid. In the example I gave in my first response, you can do a direct comparison of odds. I don't see an immediate way to do that with what you're proposing.

--Dunbar

I didn't think of weighing the odds of the case in which he wins but now that you mention it I would view it as follows:
He pays $50 if he wins the race and roughly $170 if all others finish 2nd on a $2 exacta.
The odds of all others winning the race is 3-2. If those odds are true then an equivalent value for a $2 exacta for all others to finish 2nd would be $75.
The bottom line that I see is that if you like a horse the chances to cash a ticket are better when putting him underneath all others in the exacta than betting him to win.