2/12-14: Derby Future Wager - Pool 1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I do like Rule and using him as an example my point is this:
If I make a win wager on him and he makes it to the gate he must be the best of 20 horses. I get 24-1 for that chance.
If I box him with all others in the exacta he will be running against only the horses on the list that make it to the gate. I get 55-1 if he can outperform those horses anywhere on the track. If he wins the race I must hope that any of the horses on the list do not run 2nd. For that chance I get 88-1.
(actually my payoff in the last two scenarios are $55 or $88 for a total $2 investment compared to $50 for a $2 investment if he wins the race.)
Last year only five horses from pool 1 made it to the gate. Pioneer Of The Nile was 13-1 to win the race in the futures but going into the race he only needed to finish better than four others,which he did and probably paid better for a $1 exacta than he would have if he had won the race.(I don't know what the futures exacta paid.)

Just a couple of comments...

Last year was unusual with just 5 horses from Pool 1 making it to the starting gate. The year before 12 horses made it. The average number since 2000 (I don't have info on the first year, 1999) is 8.6 horses from Pool 1 made it to the starting gate.

Also, I don't think they started the exactas until Pool 2 last year.

--Dunbar