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#2
12-22-2009, 06:24 PM
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Thoro-Graph vs. Ragozin
What's the basic difference between the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin number?
I know there is a difference in the methodology, but the Ragozin system seems to emphasize the actual distance that a horse ran and the race conditions on that day. (I typically use Beyer figures or Equibase ratings in handicapping). 
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#4
12-22-2009, 06:45 PM
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Correlation
These numbers don't seem to correlate from race to race though. One number goes higher from Race 1 to 2 while the other is lower.
It seems like there is much more variability in the Thoro-graph figure as compared to the Ragozin number from race to race. Last edited by keithting : 12-22-2009 at 07:22 PM.
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#5
12-22-2009, 06:53 PM
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huh?
TG numbers tend to be tighter than Ragozin numbers. They are FAR more prone to splitting variants and cutting races loose.
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#7
12-22-2009, 07:22 PM
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Quote:
Like Steve just said - they both use the same adjustments for weight, the same adjustments for ground loss, I would assume the same data for wind corrections .. the difference between the two is in the days race track variant. Ragozin is far less likely to split variants or cut races loose. I don't prefer either method. On a very tough day to make numbers - I might write down in my trip notes something like "Tough day for figure making. this figure might be as high as a 79 .. could be as low as 71." On an easy day I'll put "Easy day for making figs. cut and dry figure of 62 for winner" The commerical figure makers have to come up with one number - because they're selling ... and you don't see any indicators of how easy or tough a day it was to make numbers. Speed figures are an amazing tool for comparing horses from circuit-to-circuit and comparing horses from different time periods. However, they're a sometimes very overrated betting tool - unless you have great strength in all other areas of handicapping and good analytical skills... they won't help you win by themselves.
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#8
12-22-2009, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
While my experience is heavily skewed towards Thor-Graph, the methodologies are very similar. Both take ground loss most seriously in their figure making, and Thoro-Graph considers weight a great deal. TG also will factor windy days into figures. As Doug mentions above, Jerry Brown at TG is very quick to acknowledge changes in conditions over the course of a day, and will split variants. He will not force numbers on races just so they fit with everything else over the course of the card.
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