Steve Asmussen in synthetic track stake races

[MISTERGEE]

The stats are great but did I miss it or do we know why Asmussen, Dutrow dont win on synthetic?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No idea. Probably has to do with training routines and methods ... but you can't pretend to know for sure.

Jamie Ness struggled badly up here for almost half of the meet. He was complaining about the track. At about the exact point in which he told me he was going to change a bunch of things up ... within two or three weeks he was on fire ... and he was insanely strong by the end of the meet.

It's not something like with a Glenn Wismer ... where you have a guy who has almost half of his horses sired by Cozar.

Since Nov 20th of 2006 ... Wismer is 2-for-173 in dirt races.

Since March 21st of 2007 ... he's 1-for-145 in dirt races.

Since March 5th of 2008 ... he's 0-for-75 in dirt races.

He's 37-for-175 on PID's synthetic track - that's 21.1% wins with a mind-boggling $3.45 ROI. On Keeneland's synthetic track, he's 2-for-16 with a $5.44 ROI.

Forget about the extreme difference in win percentage ... the difference in ROI is insane. From $0.02 on dirt to $3.45 on PID synthetic. One's a 99% loss on investment .. the other is a 72.5% gain. - and you're talking about triple digit sample sizes with both.

[philcski]

Great stats as usual Doug... the Asmussen stuff is mind boggling. Been really doing well at KEE essentially tossing his horses in 90% of situations based on your data. For example his 2yo firster in the 6th went off favored, and while I didn't completely toss him I certainly weighted him less than had it been normal dirt and used the winner heavier. Incidentally, the winner will probably be a stakes winner and his 2nd place finisher will win next out at CD.

I'd love to know Lukas' stats on the synthetic. I can't remember the last time he had a winner on it. Hell, the last time he had a horse even run well on it I can think of was the Smarty Jones filly in the Alcibaides last year.

[MISTERGEE]

just thinking imagine Jaime Ness at Tampa with no Kirk Ziadie around? OMG

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

just thinking imagine Jaime Ness at Tampa with no Kirk Ziadie around? OMG

Dale Bennett is claiming everything that can walk at Kee.
Looking like a 2 man show in Tampa.

[MISTERGEE]

how many bennet trainers this yr at TBD

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd love to know Lukas' stats on the synthetic. I can't remember the last time he had a winner on it. Hell, the last time he had a horse even run well on it I can think of was the Smarty Jones filly in the Alcibaides last year.

Lukas last 5 years:

Real Dirt: 193 for 1,669 ($1.34 ROI)

Fake Dirt: 31 for 264 ($1.50 ROI)

Turf: 12 for 249 ($0.77 ROI)


Looks like 11% on both dirt and syn - and 4% on turf.

He's been statistically terrible on everything for a very long time in terms of ROI. One of the all-time great consistant bad ROI trainers.