Steve Asmussen in synthetic track stake races

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Riot

PID horses are coming in and killing at Keeneland.

yeah, i wish i could do the "back to the future part 2" thing

[pointman]

why doesn't the juice work on synthetic tracks?

[eajinabi]

whats his stats on synthetic overall?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Overall on synthetic:

1,149-168-158-159 - ($1.25 ROI) - 14.6% wins

Overall on dirt this decade:

15,050-3,548-2,658-2,182 - ($1.66 ROI) - 23.6% wins


Here's a comparison of Asmussen's stats on Keeneland dirt versus Keeneland synthetic.

Overall KEE Synthetic: 17-for-136 ($1.27 ROI) 12.5% wins
Overall KEE Dirt: 63-for-327 ($1.84 ROI) 19.3% wins

KEE 4.5 furlong 2yo races Synthetic: 10-for-40 ($2.52 ROI) 25.0% wins
KEE 4.5 furlong 2yo races Dirt: 16-for-62 ($2.88 ROI) 25.8% wins

KEE all races except 4.5f 2yo races Synthetic: 7-for-96 ($0.75 ROI) 7.3%
KEE all races except 4.5f 2yo races Dirt: 47-for-265 ($1.60 ROI) 17.7%

KEE all two-turn Synthetic races: 0-for-23 ($0.00 ROI) 0.0% wins
KEE all two-turn Dirt races: 9-for-44 ($2.48 ROI) 20.5% wins


I think this breakdown is very telling of what's going on.

Asmussen remains very dominant and profitable on synthetic with his 2yo's going 4.5 furlongs at KEE.

However, he struggles badly in the synthetic races beyond 4.5fs in distance.. and is downright terrible in the races a mile or further. He's never even won a race at Keeneland on synthetic beyond a mile.

Synthetic racing is mostly about being able to finish.

Go watch last years Breeders Cup Classic. Pay attention to how flat 4th place finisher Curlin was in the stretch run. Pay attention to how flat 11th place finisher Student Council was the entire race.

Asmussen won 2 Horse of the Year's with Curlin on dirt. Student Council ran just 3 times on dirt for Asmussen .. a Grade 1 win in the Pimlico Special, a Grade 2 win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and a 112 Beyer 2nd place finish in the Whitney.

Go watch last years Blue Grass Stakes. Pyro always comes with something late on dirt. He was a flat 10th by 11.5 lengths to Monba at even money.

[MISTERGEE]

The stats are great but did I miss it or do we know why Asmussen, Dutrow dont win on synthetic?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No idea. Probably has to do with training routines and methods ... but you can't pretend to know for sure.

Jamie Ness struggled badly up here for almost half of the meet. He was complaining about the track. At about the exact point in which he told me he was going to change a bunch of things up ... within two or three weeks he was on fire ... and he was insanely strong by the end of the meet.

It's not something like with a Glenn Wismer ... where you have a guy who has almost half of his horses sired by Cozar.

Since Nov 20th of 2006 ... Wismer is 2-for-173 in dirt races.

Since March 21st of 2007 ... he's 1-for-145 in dirt races.

Since March 5th of 2008 ... he's 0-for-75 in dirt races.

He's 37-for-175 on PID's synthetic track - that's 21.1% wins with a mind-boggling $3.45 ROI. On Keeneland's synthetic track, he's 2-for-16 with a $5.44 ROI.

Forget about the extreme difference in win percentage ... the difference in ROI is insane. From $0.02 on dirt to $3.45 on PID synthetic. One's a 99% loss on investment .. the other is a 72.5% gain. - and you're talking about triple digit sample sizes with both.

[philcski]

Great stats as usual Doug... the Asmussen stuff is mind boggling. Been really doing well at KEE essentially tossing his horses in 90% of situations based on your data. For example his 2yo firster in the 6th went off favored, and while I didn't completely toss him I certainly weighted him less than had it been normal dirt and used the winner heavier. Incidentally, the winner will probably be a stakes winner and his 2nd place finisher will win next out at CD.

I'd love to know Lukas' stats on the synthetic. I can't remember the last time he had a winner on it. Hell, the last time he had a horse even run well on it I can think of was the Smarty Jones filly in the Alcibaides last year.