If Zenyatta wins the Classic

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

two year olds don't have much of a body of work, so it's no surprise to me that voting can fall in favor of the bcj winner. however, declan's moon having won proves that just being the winner of that race is NO guarantee. i thought with anticipation should have been named top turfer-but the one race rule means many look elsewhere in voting-again, that issue imo has more to do with voters having a lack of turf know-how. chappy won the turf, he had a name in europe, so he got the vote. i think a lot of the time, voters tilt toward the derby and bc winners, as that's all they follow or remember. it's not a good horses fault if he fails to fire on those days, if the voters are the one who choose not to educate themselves about who's on the ballots. i also think voting can skew towards a euro invader if there is no clear cut horse that had a good year-that's when you see a horse like azeri take home HOY, since there wasn't one dominant classic-distance horse that year, and volponi was such a surprise in the classic.

I've never said the one race should have to be at the BC. Remember, I said I would have voted for GZ in 2005 and his one race was the Met Mile. The only point I was trying to make is that with no clear criteria, there's no way to know how a vote should go. The person that votes for a horse with one race in this country is no more right or wrong than the person that will only vote for the horse that competed in this country throughout the year. I remember when High Chaparral won for the second time, he did so with a dead-heat win in the Turf so it doesn't even take outright victories in NA to secure a title. Let me ask a question. There's no question that Rachel has had the most outstanding year of any horse in the country. But if Zenyatta were to be a field that included Summer Bird, Mine that Bird, Macho Again, Rail Trip, Einstein, Gio Ponti, Sea the Stars, Mastercraftsmen, and Rip Van Winkle (I know it's very unlikely all of them would be there but just humor me), wouldn't she prove that she's right there with Rachel if not better? So is the vote for best horse or best year? The debate for best year is over. The debate for best horse is still wide open.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I've never said the one race should have to be at the BC. Remember, I said I would have voted for GZ in 2005 and his one race was the Met Mile. The only point I was trying to make is that with no clear criteria, there's no way to know how a vote should go. The person that votes for a horse with one race in this country is no more right or wrong than the person that will only vote for the horse that competed in this country throughout the year. I remember when High Chaparral won for the second time, he did so with a dead-heat win in the Turf so it doesn't even take outright victories in NA to secure a title. Let me ask a question. There's no question that Rachel has had the most outstanding year of any horse in the country. But if Zenyatta were to be a field that included Summer Bird, Mine that Bird, Macho Again, Rail Trip, Einstein, Gio Ponti, Sea the Stars, Mastercraftsmen, and Rip Van Winkle (I know it's very unlikely all of them would be there but just humor me), wouldn't she prove that she's right there with Rachel if not better? So is the vote for best horse or best year? The debate for best year is over. The debate for best horse is still wide open.

since i think the vote should be for the entire years body of work, one race doesn't make HOY in my opinion. perhaps they should rename the award.
regardless of who zenyatta would beat (and keep in mind i absolutely do not believe she'll be anywhere on the track on saturday, but will run on friday) in this imaginary classic, the fact that rachel isn't there would mean it wasn't necessarily the best field assembled.

besides, regarding the thread title....that's a huge, huge IF.

[Linny]

In the scenario above Z beats everyone RA did and then some. In lieu of their actually meeting, it speaks volumes.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Linny

In the scenario above Z beats everyone RA did and then some. In lieu of their actually meeting, it speaks volumes.

But just to play devil's advocate for a second, does it matter that she did it over what could be considered a foreign surface?

I mean, it's worth asking because I think you'd be hard pressed to think Raven's Pass would have beaten Curlin on a dirt track, right?

NT

[King Glorious]

That does come into the thought process.

Raven's Pass would have had a tough time beating the Curlin we saw throughout his 3yo season and through the World Cup. But the Curlin we saw those last few months of his career was nowhere near the same horse and I believe that Raven's Pass would have dusted him on any surface. I didn't see the surface beat a horse that day. I saw a horse that was tired and worn down and ran to the same mediocre level he ran at in the Woodward and JCGC. If he had been running against quality horses in those two races instead of the goats he was facing, we would have seen him beaten a couple of times.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

That does come into the thought process.

Raven's Pass would have had a tough time beating the Curlin we saw throughout his 3yo season and through the World Cup. But the Curlin we saw those last few months of his career was nowhere near the same horse and I believe that Raven's Pass would have dusted him on any surface. I didn't see the surface beat a horse that day. I saw a horse that was tired and worn down and ran to the same mediocre level he ran at in the Woodward and JCGC. If he had been running against quality horses in those two races instead of the goats he was facing, we would have seen him beaten a couple of times.

I agree that Curlin was not the same horse towards the end of last year. But wasn't Curlin, a confirmed grinder who never really had a terrific burst of speed as his career wore on, asked to do something in the Classic that he was incapable of doing on any surface?

I thought Raven's Pass clearly the best horse that day but a big part of that was that he got the best ride. Dettori rode a perfect race and tactically knew that he had a chance if Curlin moved first.

I am just not willing to say that Zenyatta beating Summer Bird (a horse who trained so poorly over synthetic that his trainer gave him away) and Mine That Bird (who ran last over this very surface a year ago) is going to boost her HOY credentials because she will have beaten horses who Rachel beat as well.

NT

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I agree that Curlin was not the same horse towards the end of last year. But wasn't Curlin, a confirmed grinder who never really had a terrific burst of speed as his career wore on, asked to do something in the Classic that he was incapable of doing on any surface?

I thought Raven's Pass clearly the best horse that day but a big part of that was that he got the best ride. Dettori rode a perfect race and tactically knew that he had a chance if Curlin moved first.

I am just not willing to say that Zenyatta beating Summer Bird (a horse who trained so poorly over synthetic that his trainer gave him away) and Mine That Bird (who ran last over this very surface a year ago) is going to boost her HOY credentials because she will have beaten horses who Rachel beat as well.

NT

In addition, who knows which of the Europeans will take to it? I admit that I didn't even take the surface into consideration when making that argument. I have no idea why that slipped my mind. However, even beating Rail Trip and Einstein, who are both confirmed on the surface, would be more impressive to me than beating either of the Bird horses or Macho Again.