Summer Bird pointed for The BC

[Gander]

Originally Posted by CSC

As anyone who listened to Steve's interview with Tim Ice yesterday will know Summer Bird will be pointed for the BC this fall on Pro- ride. How about that, a horse and it's connections that won't use the synth angle to duck out of the competition. I propose if Summer Bird wins his next start (most likely the JCGC and wins the BC Classic) he will have earned HOY. For me this is the feel good story of the year, these connections and horse make it very easy for any racing fan to root for them.

You can certainly make a case and it is very sporting on Ice's part, but I think Rachel controls her own destiny as far as HOY goes. She'll most likely run twice more this year? If she wins both, the Woodward being one of them and perhaps the Beldame being the second, shes a lock to win this award. She already blasted Summer Bird in what will be their only head to head matchup and shares 1 triple crown race win with Summer Bird.

[CSC]

Atleast this may force Jess Jackson to rethink his fall plans, I think SB can force his hand. Winning the Belmont-Travers-JCGC-BC Classic is a very strong case for HOY.

One race at a tiiiiiiiime, sweet Jesus.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Atleast this may force Jess Jackson to rethink his fall plans, I think SB can force his hand. Winning the Belmont-Travers-JCGC-BC Classic is a very strong case for HOY.

IF and its not a mortal lock IMO.. Rachel wins the Woodward there is absolutely no chance for any horse to win HOY except her. And she's already drowned Summer Bird.

SB could win the Super Derby, JCGC, Goodwood, BCClassic and the Clark and he still wouldnt get HOY if she wins the Woodward.

Granted SB is a huge bet against in the classic but I would give him a shot in the JCGC. He's the frontrunner for 3yo Colt award but there's only one horse even in the running for HOY at this point.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

IF and its not a mortal lock IMO.. Rachel wins the Woodward there is absolutely no chance for any horse to win HOY except her. And she's already drowned Summer Bird.

SB could win the Super Derby, JCGC, Goodwood, BCClassic and the Clark and he still wouldnt get HOY if she wins the Woodward.

Granted SB is a huge bet against in the classic but I would give him a shot in the JCGC. He's the frontrunner for 3yo Colt award but there's only one horse even in the running for HOY at this point.

For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

[Revidere]

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Revidere

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

he can't enter the distaff!

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Revidere

It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

Based on what?...Summer Bird has no beyers showing for synthetic tracks....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Based on what?...Summer Bird has no beyers showing for synthetic tracks....

And so does Rachel Alexandra, but atleast he is going to be put in a position to possibly fail, to me that is far more admiral than not trying at all. Everyone keeps assuming RA will not be good on pro ride, the fact is no one knows for sure and here we are with the biggest star in the game absent on the biggest day of racing.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

The thing is regardless of how much we want to make of this 3 yr old filly vs older males, this isn't an overwhelming bunch of horses. Unless she wins in spectacular fashion I don't see the huge significance, it's not like Goldikova winning the Arc when she beat the best field of European horses over there, she would be beating a group of horses that are no better than tier 2 horses over here. I understand the historical significance but I really don't understand the glam factor the public is making of this. So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

You have the biggest hard on for this filly. She has beat the Ky Derby winner, Travers winner, Belmont winner, Ark winner, etc etc.. Add the Woodward, and put in context winning the Preakness short, switching barns coming off a huge G1 20 length score. Do you really think she wouldn't have slaughtered Summer Bird in the Travers? I really like Summer Bird and he is a very nice G1 colt but he can't get within 5 or 6 lengths of her. Rachel is getting better we haven't seen the bottom. A Woodward win secures Horse of the Year period.. If she loses the Woodward and Summer Bird wins JCGC and Classic (he won't) then SB has a claim if Rachel doesn't beat Zenyatta in the Beldame or wins Beldame and decides to crush in the Disstaff..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Before synthetic surfaces were used, was there an outcry every year for "sporting" people to move their horses from dirt to turf and vice versa at the top level of the game? Not to my knowledge. Why? They are different surfaces and very, very rarely is a horse suited for more than one surface.

There is no difference between a trainer declining to run a dominant dirt horse on turf and declining to run a dominant dirt horse on a synthetic surface.

To me, this is a simple concept.

I don't begrudge any owner or trainer for refusing to run a dominant dirt horse on a synthetic surface.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Gander

She already blasted Summer Bird in what will be their only head to head matchup and shares 1 triple crown race win with Summer Bird.

As I keep reminding people that is only one race, many great horses have been "blasted" once only to redeem themselves later on. Frankly it is a tiresome argument to constantly refer the Haskell as the only and true measuring stick that RA is 10 lengths better than SB. If she shows up at SA in the Classic or Belmont for the JCGC, I suspect alot people will start to see the light.

One thing we do know, the connections are sporting and not scared to showcase their horse anywhere, anytime. Even on a foreign surface.

[slotdirt]

When he runs a bang up fourth to two Euros and Tiago, will we still be applauding this decision? In any event, Summer Bird was a pretty easy horse to root for like four months ago. Plus, Summer Bird >>>>>> Dunkirk.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by CSC

As I keep reminding people that is only one race, many great horses have been "blasted" once only to redeem themselves later on. Frankly it is a tiresome argument to constantly refer the Haskell as the only and true measuring stick that RA is 10 lengths better than SB. If she shows up at SA in the Classic or Belmont for the JCGC, I suspect alot people will start to see the light.

One thing we do know, the connections are sporting and not scared to showcase their horse anywhere, anytime. Even on a foreign surface.

I'm not saying Summer Bird isnt capable of beating Rachel in a rematch, if one was to take place, but do you really think a rematch will happen? What more does rachel have to prove? If she wins this weekend, she will have dominated 3 year old fillies, 3 year old males (twice) and older males (given a likely romp in the Woodward). The only thing left for her to take on is older fillies and mares. Why on earth would her connections entertain the idea of the Jockey Club when all it would be is a collection of who she has already beaten?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Gander

I'm not saying Summer Bird isnt capable of beating Rachel in a rematch, if one was to take place, but do you really think a rematch will happen? What more does rachel have to prove? If she wins this weekend, she will have dominated 3 year old fillies, 3 year old males (twice) and older males (given a likely romp in the Woodward). The only thing left for her to take on is older fillies and mares. Why on earth would her connections entertain the idea of the Jockey Club when all it would be is a collection of who she has already beaten?

I agree on one point, Jess Jackson will not risk RA's reputation unless a horse can threaten her for HOY. Whether one agrees with the BC format or not, it was designed for determining year end honors and historically more times than not it has.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by CSC

I agree on one point, Jess Jackson will not risk RA's reputation unless a horse can threaten her for HOY. Whether one agrees with the BC format or not, it was designed for determining year end honors and historically more times than not it has.

I also dont think its a given that Summer Bird is just going to win easily again, this time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I will take a shot he gets beat by an older horse in this spot.