When Horses That Can't Win.....Do

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Was it his play of the week? He liked the horse mainly because of the overall weekness of the field, it was a shot and he knew that. He was right he did well, but how often is anyone going to be right on a 30-1 shot?

Well he also liked the horse because he had some hidden form, especially off that last run which looked relatively weak on paper in a Grade III race.

Not sure if it was his "play of the week," per se, but my point was that not everyone views every 30-1 shot as hopeless, and it's not just because they're swinging for prices.

As for how often anyone is going to be right on a 30-1 shot...having worked with Joe on a daily basis for nearly two years now, I can tell you that while he seeks out prices whenever they're possible, he's not one just indiscriminately putting 30-1 shots on top of his picks, hoping to get a bomb.

So as far as I can remember, in the last year, he is "going to be right about a 30-1 shot" somewhere near 100% of the time....this past Saturday. That's the difference between having a "horse to watch" that pops up in your virtual stable off a run like his Arlington Handicap and who is going to go off at 33-1 in a very suspect field who has some hidden form and whose last races are better than they look -- and someone who is just crossing their fingers hoping for a $68 horse to get them out of a hole. Put yourself in whichever camp is appropriate.