The Art of Stealing Bases

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You are only using the no out scenario and there are three scenarios that are in play in your sb%.

(0.85*1.1811) + (0.15*0.2783)

That is the 85% chance of the steal plus the 15% chance of getting out. In the 85% chance the steal is successful your expected values of runs is 1.1811. In the 15% chance the steal is successful your expected value of runs is 0.2783. It factors in both possibilities if you attempt a steal.

For a 75% base stealer:

(0.75*1.1811) + (0.25*0.2783)

The break even point is the 70% base stealer;

(0.70*1.1811) + (0.30*0.2783)

That equals .91026 which is almost identical to the .9116 expected runs if you don't attempt the steal.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

(0.85*1.1811) + (0.15*0.2783)

That is the 85% chance of the steal plus the 15% chance of getting out. In the 85% chance the steal is successful your expected values of runs is 1.1811. In the 15% chance the steal is successful your expected value of runs is 0.2783. It factors in both possibilities if you attempt a steal.

For a 75% base stealer:

(0.75*1.1811) + (0.25*0.2783)

The break even point is the 70% base stealer;

(0.70*1.1811) + (0.30*0.2783)

That equals .91026 which is almost identical to the .9116 expected runs if you don't attempt the steal.

yes with no outs and a man on first which isnt the only scenario that an 85 or 75% stealer will face.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

yes with no outs and a man on first which isnt the only scenario that an 85 or 75% stealer will face.

No one is saying they should be stealing home with one out.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

No one is saying they should be stealing home with one out.

Or second with two.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

How can you not mention the pitcher n' catcher involved? Some of these teams really struggle at throwing runners out at 2nd.