If you are an 85% base stealer your expected runs from attempting a steal is (0.85*1.1811) + (0.15*0.2783) which equals 1.04568 runs which is considerable higher than 0.9116 runs if you don't attempt a steal. Even at 75% it would be .9554 expected runs. At 70% they are equal. So basically if you have a 70% chance of stealing you won't help or hurt your team in the long run. Having more than a 70% chance will help your team, less than 70% will hurt your team. Yet there are a considerable amount of players well over 75% that should be running more.
|
07-28-2009, 05:15 PM
Threaded Mode