7/18-19 (DEL): Delaware Oaks (G2), Delaware H. (G2) Weekend

cappaweet · #1 07-18-2009, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Looking at the Oaks.. if you want to try to beat the faves, and they look like they're vulnerable, Josie Carroll's Careless Jewel (8-1) may be the answer. Is forward-going and could make a quantum leap first time real dirt. Doesn't look like she has to have the lead, and came home nicely in the ALW blowout first time routing (albeit one turn).

Thanks for the tip Steve!!

Kasept · #2 07-19-2009, 05:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cappaweet

Thanks for the tip Steve!!

Cap/Eaj,

My pleasure. She jumped off the page at me and the 10-1 was stunning given the field size after the SCR of Livin Lovin. She was the only horse I was interested in yesterday, and she blew that race apart. Another example of the potential of 'first dirt after multiple good starts on synthetic'.

Bon Jovi Girl specifically was a bad favorite off the freakout last time in the mud. As one of Dee Tee's big partners says, "She's not much pumpkin", and 3-5 was a ridiculously bizarre price.

The $22 win price on Careless Jewel and overlaid $450 ($1) triple with Bon Jovi Girl out of the money was a big opportunity.

Bobby Fischer · #3 07-19-2009, 10:42 AM

what kind of odds on Icon Project?

her last was monstrous. Valdivia is one of the best with "pre-conditioned" horses, better yet if he got on them himself in the morning, but either way Wolfson surely has his guys. Wolfson is a high powered trainer... She was actually a legit turf horse vs better horses than Unbridled Belle and has a versatile pedigree. She is, if not the most likely winner, close in probability to UB in a race where the ML does not reflect that.

eajinabi · #4 07-19-2009, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Cap/Eaj,

My pleasure. She jumped off the page at me and the 10-1 was stunning given the field size after the SCR of Livin Lovin. She was the only horse I was interested in yesterday, and she blew that race apart. Another example of the potential of 'first dirt after multiple good starts on synthetic'.

Bon Jovi Girl specifically was a bad favorite off the freakout last time in the mud. As one of Dee Tee's big partners says, "She's not much pumpkin", and 3-5 was a ridiculously bizarre price.

The $22 win price on Careless Jewel and overlaid $450 ($1) triple with Bon Jovi Girl out of the money was a big opportunity.

I included that horse based on your tip in my pick 3 but eventually lost it in the last leg

Bobby Fischer · #5 07-19-2009, 04:42 PM

Great, she is 3/2, 15MTP, LOWER odds than Unbridled Belle...

Bobby Fischer · #6 07-19-2009, 04:45 PM

IP currently 2.80 to show , but with these internet players she will likely be down near 0 min to an unbettable price.

jms62 · #7 07-19-2009, 05:05 PM

Do horses ever get passed at Delaware ?

Bobby Fischer · #8 07-19-2009, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Do horses ever get passed at Delaware ?

Not under Alan Garcia...

can't believe Icon Project paid that well to show(she was unplayable to win). There was 2-3K of weird money(owner?) to show on Acoma, who finished out, but IP was still set to pay around 2.80.