What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Outside of the Lava Man fans everyone almost seems to have accepted that whoever wins the JCGC between Invasor and Bernardini will also win the Classic.

That's hardly the case. A recent thread already showed that there is plenty of room for doubt over whether one of the "Big Three" will win the Classic. If you are totally certain one of the Big Three will win the Classic, you can make a bundle betting futures.

I'd say that there is a maximum 60% chance that the BC Classic is won by LM, Bernardini, or Invasor. Before Electrocutionist's death I would have put it a little lower than that.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That's hardly the case. A recent thread already showed that there is plenty of room for doubt over whether one of the "Big Three" will win the Classic. If you are totally certain one of the Big Three will win the Classic, you can make a bundle betting futures.

I'd say that there is a maximum 60% chance that the BC Classic is won by LM, Bernardini, or Invasor. Before Electrocutionist's death I would have put it a little lower than that.

--Dunbar

Isn't Bernardini like 9/5 or something ridiculously low like that on the futures?

[Gander]

I would say if one of those 3 horses (Invasor, Bernardini and Lava Man) win the BC Classic, they would automatically become HOY, regardless of how they finish in their last prep race. I dont necessarily agree with that but thats how it goes.

Originally Posted by Gander

I would say if one of those 3 horses (Invasor, Bernardini and Lava Man) win the BC Classic, they would automatically become HOY, regardless of how they finish in their last prep race. I dont necessarily agree with that but thats how it goes.

I agree with Gander and I dont agree either. The emphasis on the Classic is 100x time more important than JCGC. If Lava Man wins the Classic then I have no problem with him winning the award even if he loses his next race. I think he has done more than Invasor or Bernardini.

The question should be, what is all three lose their final Prep.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Isn't Bernardini like 9/5 or something ridiculously low like that on the futures?

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

Just checked, and odds are not posted at Gameday this morning. But it was definitely 12-5 (2.4-1) on Bernardini within the past 2 days. The only change in the "Big Three" that I could see from a few days earlier was that Lava Man had moved from 7-1 to 13-2. I also noticed that David Junior had dropped from 12-1 to 10-1. Those moves could have been explained simply by the loss of Electrocutionist.

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just checked, and odds are not posted at Gameday this morning. But it was definitely 12-5 (2.4-1) on Bernardini within the past 2 days. The only change in the "Big Three" that I could see from a few days earlier was that Lava Man had moved from 7-1 to 13-2. I also noticed that David Junior had dropped from 12-1 to 10-1. Those moves could have been explained simply by the loss of Electrocutionist.

--Dunbar

I can't believe the odds are that low for a horse who is training up to the race in Europe for their first start ever on dirt.

[Gander]

I cant either. European horses are so overrated its actually very comical. Here we have a warrior in Lava Man who does nothing but win on both surfaces and people would rather talk about Dave Junior and his accomplishments and criticize Lava Man for only running in CA.

I guess its very fashionable to like the euros. Makes a lot of sense given their huge success in american dirt racing, lol!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I can't believe the odds are that low for a horse who is training up to the race in Europe for their first start ever on dirt.

Sightseek and Gander, I agree completely about David Junior's odds. I'm certainly not saying that those are reasonable odds. I was only re-iterating that the odds on the "Big Three" are good enough to suggest that the BC Classic is not just down to those 3 horses.

FWIW, David Junior is available at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com) at 14-1. And that site's future odds are rarely competitive with what Pinnacle and TheGreek put up.

--Dunbar

[jpops757]

These odds are great but the thing that is scary is , will they even be there. Thats the big chance you are taking.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just checked, and odds are not posted at Gameday this morning. But it was definitely 12-5 (2.4-1) on Bernardini within the past 2 days. The only change in the "Big Three" that I could see from a few days earlier was that Lava Man had moved from 7-1 to 13-2. I also noticed that David Junior had dropped from 12-1 to 10-1. Those moves could have been explained simply by the loss of Electrocutionist.

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

[Cajungator26]

Has anyone heard anything regarding Bright One? Is he back in training?

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Has anyone heard anything regarding Bright One? Is he back in training?

He is being pointed towards the Indiana Derby Grade II

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

Well, applying my 30% sidelined estimate, 13-2 today is roughly the same as 9-2 on BC day. If Invasor beats Bernardini in the JCGC, that 9-2 would look great. If he gets trounced by Bernardini in the JCGC, the 9-2 won't look so hot. Similar thoughts about Lava Man's final prep.

As a general rule, futures have to be approached with a good deal of caution and skepticism. For example, the list above equates to a 27.6% track take! And it's worse than that because the winner of the BCC might not even be on that list of horses.

That's not to say certain individual horses in that list could not provide value.

Unless I saw a number that I absolutely loved, I would wait until Pinnacle and/or TheGreek put up their futures.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

--Dunbar

In this era of racing to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1 so you'd have to like Bernardini at 6/5 to consider that bet. You'd be better off throwing your money at him at 6/5 in the JCGC.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

In this era of racing to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1 so you'd have to like Bernardini at 6/5 to consider that bet. You'd be better off throwing your money at him at 6/5 in the JCGC.

You are looking at it the right way, but I don't think it's as drastic as you wrote.

You can get 2.4-1 now. If you thought there was a 50% chance Bernardini would make the BC Classic, then 2.4-1 is the same as 6-5 on race day. So I don't know what you mean by "to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1".

I would personally put the chance of a top horse not making the BC Classic at about 30% at this point. We are less than 8 weeks away. If my 30% estimate is right, then 2.4-1 now is roughly equivalent to 1.70 to 1 on race day. (70% of 2.4 is 1.7).

So, IMO 2.4-1 now is way better than 6-5 on race day.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You are looking at it the right way, but I don't think it's as drastic as you wrote.

You can get 2.4-1 now. If you thought there was a 50% chance Bernardini would make the BC Classic, then 2.4-1 is the same as 6-5 on race day. So I don't know what you mean by "to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1".

I would personally put the chance of a top horse not making the BC Classic at about 30% at this point. We are less than 8 weeks away. If my 30% estimate is right, then 2.4-1 now is roughly equivalent to 1.70 to 1 on race day. (70% of 2.4 is 1.7).

So, IMO 2.4-1 now is way better than 6-5 on race day.

--Dunbar

Yes, I shouldn't have phrased it as 2-1, I meant it in terms of a 50% chance reducing the 12/5 to 6/5.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

--Dunbar

7-2 at let it ride

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I like those odds on Sun King. This horse has been knocking on the door all year long. One more jump in the Woodward and he would have had Invasor beat. I really, really like this horse. He just may be my classic horse if something happens to Bernardini or Bernardini flops in his next race (that probably won't happen).