Rabbit for Mine That Bird?

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by CSC

I agree 100%, MTB has one style that he has truly excelled at and we know what that is...All you have to do is see his handling by Casey Lambert to know he does not like to be rushed. If this race is paceless I would hate to be on him at what most likely will be 2-1 with him roughly 10-15 lengths off of the leaders, and if he is injected sooner into a race without pace we all have seen he can be pretty mediocre.

my view is if the pace is too slow , say 49.00 1:14,for 3/4 MTB and others will be closer to the leader with an extra 1/4 mile to run than the derby. the leader CM or whoever might have some thing left after a slow pace however, no lead to capitalize on it. these late runners will run the last 3/8ths faster and if no big lead by pace-setter he's done. does this make sense..lol, in these ultra -long races MTB will not have to be injected,and will be closer to the leaders if pace is to slow, thus closers being close and having it their own way with-out moving to early, from my view point throught the years wwhen pace was honest in the belmont the leaders had an advantage with closers getting loss way back, maybe too far back because jockeys are afraid of moving to early at belmont. one huge plus for summer bird is Kd,he has this track down to a T.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by sdjcom

my view is if the pace is too slow , say 49.00 1:14,for 3/4 MTB and others will be closer to the leader with an extra 1/4 mile to run than the derby. the leader CM or whoever might have some thing left after a slow pace however, no lead to capitalize on it. these late runners will run the last 3/8ths faster and if no big lead by pace-setter he's done.

That makes sense. If the front runners go slow, then the race is turned into a contest of closing kicks. It doesn't always favor the horse in front.

The danger obviously is that if one of the forwardly placed horses like Charitable Man is able to rate on the pace, they can be hard to pass in the stretch.

With this triple crown crop, sometimes we are getting too complex with all the different scenarios.
It may just be a case of whether or not a few of these guys will "fire" over the distance, much more than the advanced things like the fractions and who benefits the most.

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

That makes sense. If the front runners go slow, then the race is turned into a contest of closing kicks. It doesn't always favor the horse in front.

The danger obviously is that if one of the forwardly placed horses like Charitable Man is able to rate on the pace, they can be hard to pass in the stretch.

With this triple crown crop, sometimes we are getting too complex with all the different scenarios.
It may just be a case of whether or not a few of these guys will "fire" over the distance, much more than the advanced things like the fractions and who benefits the most.

i agree with you and CM just might have plenty of kick left,i just think in this long of a race standard pace set-ups can go awry. i feel the pace can be too fast or honest or too slow, and think the too slow does,nt always favor the leaders, either way fun talking about it and good-luck to you on belmont day.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by sdjcom

my view is if the pace is too slow , say 49.00 1:14,for 3/4 MTB and others will be closer to the leader with an extra 1/4 mile to run than the derby. the leader CM or whoever might have some thing left after a slow pace however, no lead to capitalize on it. these late runners will run the last 3/8ths faster and if no big lead by pace-setter he's done. does this make sense..lol, in these ultra -long races MTB will not have to be injected,and will be closer to the leaders if pace is to slow, thus closers being close and having it their own way with-out moving to early, from my view point throught the years wwhen pace was honest in the belmont the leaders had an advantage with closers getting loss way back, maybe too far back because jockeys are afraid of moving to early at belmont. one huge plus for summer bird is Kd,he has this track down to a T.

After watching the first turn of last year's Belmont with Big Brown, it's hard for me to trust that guy

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

After watching the first turn of last year's Belmont with Big Brown, it's hard for me to trust that guy

well i really can't blame you but KD is been hot lately in the big races and i think moves this horse up, i am thinking of keying him and some str bets on SB good-luck belmont day

[CSC]

Originally Posted by sdjcom

my view is if the pace is too slow , say 49.00 1:14,for 3/4 MTB and others will be closer to the leader with an extra 1/4 mile to run than the derby. the leader CM or whoever might have some thing left after a slow pace however, no lead to capitalize on it. these late runners will run the last 3/8ths faster and if no big lead by pace-setter he's done. does this make sense..lol, in these ultra -long races MTB will not have to be injected,and will be closer to the leaders if pace is to slow, thus closers being close and having it their own way with-out moving to early, from my view point throught the years wwhen pace was honest in the belmont the leaders had an advantage with closers getting loss way back, maybe too far back because jockeys are afraid of moving to early at belmont. one huge plus for summer bird is Kd,he has this track down to a T.

I understand your reasoning, not sure I agree 100% but that's all in the evaluation of races and horses. You do not have to convince me Mine That Bird has earned deserved respect, I was one that didn't need the Preakness to validate his performance in the Derby; however saying that I am just not convinced he can be equally effective running into slower splits and around wide sweeping turns. What we do know is MTB has 2 strong races with 46 halfs employing quick & decisive moves on tighter turning tracks. His runs at this point seem to be short explosive bursts, something I am not sure I can see happening at 1 1/2 and on Belmont's wide sweeping turns where a substained drive may be more effective.