5/16 (PIM): Preakness (G1); Dixie (G2); Gallorette (G3), et al..

[miraja2]

I like Take the Points here. I'm not sure how exactly I'm going to use him yet, but I'll probably bet him across and use him underneath RA in an exacta and in the bottom spots of some exotics.

Maybe I'm just completely nuts for liking this horse, but his last race on the dirt at GP, and his dirt works after the Santa Anita Derby are interesting enough for me to like him more than any of the top finishers in the Derby, and I think he could be a factor at pretty big odds.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like Take the Points here. I'm not sure how exactly I'm going to use him yet, but I'll probably bet him across and use him underneath RA in an exacta and in the bottom spots of some exotics.

Maybe I'm just completely nuts for liking this horse, but his last race on the dirt at GP, and his dirt works after the Santa Anita Derby are interesting enough for me to like him more than any of the top finishers in the Derby, and I think he could be a factor at pretty big odds.

I want to like him too, especially considering he's been pretty good on the dirt. The problem I had was that his GP race looks a bit counterfeit given that the runner-up got beaten badly in minor graded stakes on dirt and synth and the 3rd place finisher is a claimer. This guy had everything his own way with the slow pace and the track was strong speed favoring on 1/31.

I think of the new shooters, everyone's darling Big Drama ranks at the top of the list. I get the feeling this race will end up quite formful.

NT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I want to like him too, especially considering he's been pretty good on the dirt. The problem I had was that his GP race looks a bit counterfeit given that the runner-up got beaten badly in minor graded stakes on dirt and synth and the 3rd place finisher is a claimer. This guy had everything his own way with the slow pace and the track was strong speed favoring on 1/31.
NT

True, but I think he is eligible to improve on the return to dirt after his two Cali races. Even though he was soundly beaten in the Sham, I thought his race that day was pretty good, and there is nothing wrong with losing to The Pample after chasing him wide all the way around the track. Then, in the Santa Anita Derby, he got cut off in the stretch which appeared to bother him quite a bit. It seems like he might be one of those 3yo who has improved quite a bit over the last few months or so, but that improvement is masked a little bit because of the surface switch.
He also sems to have enough tactical speed that he should be able to get over easily from the outside post and sit right behind the leaders.

I admit I'm probably reaching on this one, but I hate all of the horses coming out of the Derby in this spot, with the possible exception of FF. I think Take the Points is as likely to hit the board as somebody like Papa Clem or Mine that Bird, but Take the Points will be a much better price than those two.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Take the Points is as likely to hit the board as somebody like Papa Clem or Mine that Bird, but Take the Points will be a much better price than those two.

Or maybe not....

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think of the new shooters, everyone's darling Big Drama ranks at the top of the list. I get the feeling this race will end up quite formful.

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

[NoLuvForPletch]

NO.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

NO.

I think it's a tall order and a rough bet at anything less than ... 15-1 at least?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think it's a tall order and a rough bet at anything less than ... 15-1 at least?

I think people are looking to beat the girl and with the exception of FF, who had an excuse, it's hard to support the others coming out of the KD. He's going to take all the wise guy cash IMO and will be an underlay...

[Derby73]

Kentucky Derby Winner-Preakness Finish

1997: Silver Charm- 1
1998: Real Quiet- 1
1999: Charismatic-1
2000: FuPeg-2 (Beaten by Red Bullet, DNR in Derby)
2001: Monarchos-6 (the only cluncker on the list, Point Given,#5 in Derby)
2002: War Emblem-1
2003: Funny Cide-1
2004: Smarty Jones-1
2005 Giacomo-3
2006: Barbaro- DNF (likely #1)
2007: Street Sense-2 (Curlin,#3 in Derby)
2008: Big Brown-1

Hell, he could finish way back, but how can you throw out MTB in tri boxes?

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

He sure could tire her out though,setting up the race for a Closer!! MTB???

[moses]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

He sure could tire her out though,setting up the race for a Closer!! MTB???

Honestly, I'd love to see that because I think MTB has a shot at the Belmont if he can win this.

The thing is, I really don't think MTB is going to win this, but maybe...maybe.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like Take the Points here.

A self-imposed one week ban from posting on this board has been issued as a punishment for this nonsense, starting........now.