who is a real threat to RA?

the_fat_man · #1 05-14-2009, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rontheman1964

Is it possible for the field to pull "the old Smarty Jones" on her to get her beat? Big Drama goes out fast to see if she will chase. FF, Gen Quarters, et al stalk and run at her in the middle. POTN, MTB and others try to beat her on the wire. If they can gang up on her and make her run every step of the way, maybe one of them can get past her at the wire....I guess I'm just not anxious to take 8/5 or less on a filly with a big target on her back.

Hard to believe that the colts in the race are going to gang up on a filly. I suspect, if they take a liking to her, that most are going to want to follow her around the track.

sdjcom · #2 05-14-2009, 07:50 PM

if they go 47 and change she has a shot below 47 1st 1/2 she's done. look @ her pp over 1mile, I think POTN will move forward on a fast track with MTB and General Quarters plc/shw. if a bettor has some money they can afford to lose and risk with high rewards this is a good time to pitch her and bet against. too many factors against a low odds filly in with colts, can she win yes, will she win i doubt it. good-luck to all ps. i picked curlin to beat RTR lol...

skippy3481 · #3 05-14-2009, 08:12 PM

If she rates into the pace big drama sets, everyone is running for second

Hoist Her Flag · #4 05-14-2009, 08:16 PM

Why is it the Smarty Jones Ploy? If she can't rate and win she not good enough. The other 12 horses don't have to roll over and give her the rail like they did Mine that Bird in Kentucky.

sdjcom · #5 05-14-2009, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481

If she rates into the pace big drama sets, everyone is running for second

she will rate off of Big Drama or anyone else who's frisky, my point is a 47 and up you are probably right, if they dare go 46 and a tick or two she's done. i don't think she can goe a 46 for a 1/2 mile and beat this colts.

skippy3481 · #6 05-14-2009, 08:21 PM

I'm going to say it one for time. If she rates off the pace, she will win. If they are going 46 for the half, shes not rating, if she runs her race she will win. You can't say that for anyone else.

sdjcom · #7 05-14-2009, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481

I'm going to say it one for time. If she rates off the pace, she will win. If they are going 46 for the half, shes not rating, if she runs her race she will win. You can't say that for anyone else.

i understand what you are saying, but to be up stalking with Big Drama i would say she have to go fast or rate 4-5 horses back. they are not going to let her go easy early right off the leaders imo. i think this will be the fastest 1/2 mile we have seen in a while for a big race i think she will have to go a fast 1/2 mile to get position from the 13 hole. she cannot win 6-7 horses back 3 wide period

sdjcom · #8 05-14-2009, 08:38 PM

everybody talking about her 20 lenght win , impressive, Calvin did even move on her, do you really think she will run and look like that Sat? there will be a big surprise coming for all the guys and girls betting the milk money on her. GO BIG POTN

moses · #9 05-16-2009, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Hard to believe that the colts in the race are going to gang up on a filly. I suspect, if they take a liking to her, that most are going to want to follow her around the track.

So where does that leave Mine That Bird?

CSC · #10 05-16-2009, 09:24 AM

I think the key moment of today's race is when Rachel Alexandra pops the question and makes her move on Big Drama, if BD makes her work to get by I would think POTN or MTB will have a target to run at. I don't like BD's chances of lasting 1 3/16ths but he could make it tough for RA today, thus he is a big player as was Join the Dance was in the derby.