134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by GBBob

I think horses "don"t try" a lot less than you, or others may think. And you are giving trainers (and owners) too much credit for manipulating a race so there is a better "price ( not sure what you mean by that?? odds??) next time out. Just getting a horse to a race is a bigger challenge than actually winning sometimes so wasting a start as a set up is very risky. There may be a low expectation, but to not try and win a race or have the horse go all out is asking for trouble most of the time.

bob - i don't disagree with you on that , maybe i think it goes on more than it really does

but - to think that it doesn't go on ever at all is not right either

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Just so I'm clear, Gales are saying that maybe the connections weren't trying in the Sunland races, so they could cash in big in the Derby?

There is more than one Gales?




Regarding his point, if indeed there are horses/connections out there "not trying", I can pretty much guarantee they are not on the Derby trail doing it.

[gales0678]

perhaps steve can get a breakdown of how much was bet on the horse in Canada in particular at Woodbine , this would be interesting to see

perhpas some of the sharp players at Woodbine knew this horse had talent - they saw a big time jockey switch as the green light to bet this horse

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

perhaps steve can get a breakdown of how much was bet on the horse in Canada in particular at Woodbine , this would be interesting to see

perhpas some of the sharp players at Woodbine knew this horse had talent - they saw a big time jockey switch as the green light to bet this horse

It doesn't really matter where people were betting on him from...the mutuel pool for the Derby was $43,434,837...every horse is going to get some money on them in that pool. It has no difference, especially when there are a number of longshot/50-1 ML horses.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

perhaps steve can get a breakdown of how much was bet on the horse in Canada in particular at Woodbine , this would be interesting to see

perhpas some of the sharp players at Woodbine knew this horse had talent - they saw a big time jockey switch as the green light to bet this horse

perhaps there is no freaking way to explain it. Even if the horse had won the Freaking Sunland Park derby he would have been 40-1 at best. And we all would have tossed his ass out still. He showed grit as a two year old but he showed nothing as a three year old Marty. Nothing we come up with after the race would justify betting him in the race. Nothing

the only thing i disagree with is writing this horse off after he just won the Derby by 7 with a 105 Beyer. I'd like to see him run a few more times before writing him off... Am I going to use him him the Preakness?? most likely not unless somehow he's high odds (15-1 or higher) which is very unlikely. I'm probably not going to bet the Preakness at all... I'm still pissed at my piss poor opinion of the Derby.

I also agree with Coach that the Derby made a lot of horses look really bad... and I dont think the 2nd, 3rd or 4th finishers were impressive at all...

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

perhaps there is no freaking way to explain it. Even if the horse had won the Freaking Sunland Park derby he would have been 40-1 at best. And we all would have tossed his ass out still. He showed grit as a two year old but he showed nothing as a three year old Marty. Nothing we come up with after the race would justify betting him in the race. Nothing

the only thing i disagree with is writing this horse off after he just won the Derby by 7 with a 105 Beyer. I'd like to see him run a few more times before writing him off... Am I going to use him him the Preakness?? most likely not unless somehow he's high odds (15-1 or higher) which is very unlikely. I'm probably not going to bet the Preakness at all... I'm still pissed at my piss poor opinion of the Derby.

I also agree with Coach that the Derby made a lot of horses look really bad... and I dont think the 2nd, 3rd or 4th finishers were impressive at all...

he listed at 5/1 for the Preakness

[sumitas]

You cannot dismiss that tgraph tapped him as one of the few eligible for a new top . And MTB delivered that top . It seems he will probably be a couple of points off that top in the Preakness but that might be good enough to win . We need to look at the form cycle for horses ready for a new top for the Preakness.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by sumitas

You cannot dismiss that tgraph tapped him as one of the few eligible for a new top . And MTB delivered that top . It seems he will probably be a couple of points off that top in the Preakness but that might be good enough to win . We need to look at the form cycle for horses ready for a new top for the Preakness.

Oh my God.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by sumitas

You cannot dismiss that tgraph tapped him as one of the few eligible for a new top . And MTB delivered that top . It seems he will probably be a couple of points off that top in the Preakness but that might be good enough to win . We need to look at the form cycle for horses ready for a new top for the Preakness.

His new top was still going to be below the rest of the runner.

He wont win the Preakness.

The Filly will bounce.

Pioneer of Thenile will win.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Just so I'm clear, Gales are saying that maybe the connections weren't trying in the Sunland races, so they could cash in big in the Derby?

I think it is quite apparent the connections had no intention of running in the Derby. They bought the horse with hopes of running in the lucrative Sunland 3 yr old raced focusing on the Sunland Derby and if all went well there perhaps the Belmont Stakes. There was great uproar over Dunkirk's 150,000 graded earnings not being enough. At the start of 2009, with the 138,000 graded earnings of Mine That Bird I'm sure the connections weren't thinking that was enough and they made no attempt to run in a graded race. For anyone to say they weren't trying in the Sunland races is absolutely nuts. Those races were the reason they purchased the horse. A win in the Sunland Derby would have earned them more than what they paid for him.

Once the calvacade of injuries started...lo and behold they actually had enough graded earnings to get in the Derby and the legendary left footed drive to Louisville commenced. Their only goal in the Derby was to not get embarrased and finish top 10 and do enough to move on to the Belmont Stakes. Things changed.

[Antitrust32]

while its obvious this will be Rachel Alexandra's toughest race ever...

I wonder what her racing style will be with Big Drama and speed in that race... Hope she doesnt get caught up in a speed duel and fades.. but she might even be good enough to be in a speed duel and still put them away and win by open lengths.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

while its obvious this will be Rachel Alexandra's toughest race ever...

I wonder what her racing style will be with Big Drama and speed in that race... Hope she doesnt get caught up in a speed duel and fades.. but she might even be good enough to be in a speed duel and still put them away and win by open lengths.

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

didnt she sit just off the pace in the Oaks...

hopefully she relaxes in this race and doesnt get caught up.

to be honest I dont think Pimlico fits MTB's style and even if the speed got caught up someone else would probably win...

Unless of course the track is made of soup again.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

Because Mine That Bird isn't that good of a horse when he's not running in the mud, saving ground with a rail skimming ride by Borel. Borel rode the horse perfectly on that day. Chances are the horse is no where near as good as he showed last week and will never run to that level again without the optimal setup that he received last week. I guess he could but others are more likelier.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Because Mine That Bird isn't that good of a horse when he's not running in the mud, saving ground with a rail skimming ride by Borel. Borel rode the horse perfectly on that day. Chances are the horse is no where near as good as he showed last week and will never run to that level again without the optimal setup that he received last week. I guess he could but others are more likelier.

i hear what you are saying but the fractions in the preakness with RA and Big Drama could be just as quick , why wouldn't that help a horse that comes off the pace , assuming that's what the connections tell the new jock to do?

if the race falls apart because of pace , why can't he win again, if he runs back to his new top

don't 3 yr olds usually pair up? he ran two low 80's at Sunland , now he has a 105 off track or not why are we to believe that he can't repeat that beyer effort?

[philcski]

There is a monkey wrench in the RA to Preakness plan that just occurred to me. Since she needs to be supplemented, she will automatically be LAST on the preference list. If 14 go, she could be excluded. It's highly unlikely, but possible given the Derby results.