Why It's Silly To Play Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda

Originally Posted by oracle80

This thread shows the difference between those who understand the game, and those who want it to be like something it isn't.
You see BB, human athletes when feeling a cramp or pain, tell teh coach or manager to take them out of the lineup and they go and see the Dr.
Basically, they can talk.
Horses can't. And they also don't have the intelligence(most of them) to pull themselves up in a race when they feel pain. They keep running until they can't.
Therefore injuries occur that end their careers prematurely.
Trying to use "accomplishments" over a three year period as an absolute to achieve greatness is illogical in the horse business.
Don Mattingly was certainly great, one of the best who ever played baseball as a matter of fact. His back injury prevented him from putting up career hall oF fame standard numbers.
Does this mean he was not great? Piffle and balderdash!!! he most certainly was.
here is a "newsflash" for you. because of the current disproportion between stud fees and purses, it would be insane for anyone but a sheokh to run a superstar at age 4. crazy!!! the insurance premiums would far outweigh any purses that the horse could earn.
So what I'm basically telling you is that 4 year old campaigns by great three year olds are going to be rare. This does not mean that we will never again see greatness.
To use this logic, only a three year old who is awesome and is owned by a sheikh will ever have the chance to be great.
Its nonsense. You can identify greatness by watchinga horse run and specualting with rationality what kind of horse he is.

Greatness has little to do with the number of times a horse races ... or the number of years he races. Lammtarra proved that ... by soundly beating the best horses from all contemporary crops in the three most important races in Europe.

But unless a horse demonstrates ... on the track in actual races ... that he is capable of defeating opponents of known quality ... all the speculative couldas and wouldas and shouldas and I-can-tell's ... don't mean a thing.

Identify "greatness" by watching a horse run and speculating with rationality? Sounds like the 2YOS In Training Sales ... and we see how well those speculations turn out.