5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[nomad]

My daughter is a good capper but not at all into horseracing. She is in law school,so of course,she needs money. I told her to cap the derby & I would send her money. She is oblivoius to any of the info & hype we thrive on. This is what she sent:

Andrea’s 135th Kentucky Derby Picks
v The Bottom Line
Ø Pioneer of the Nile
Ø Papa Clem
Ø Dunkirk (my best long shot)

v Definite Eliminations Based on Lifetime Record and Who Beat Who Analysis
§ Westside Bernie
§ Mr. Hot Stuff
§ Join in the Dance
§ Atomic Rain
§ Summer Bird
§ Nowhere to Hide
§ Flying Private
v Eliminations based on the same but weak performances as opposed to poor performances
§ Hold Me Back
§ Advice
v Somewhere in the Middle all have a real shot based on those same factors
§ Mine that Bird
§ Regal Ransom
§ Chocolate Candy
§ General Quarters
§ I want Revenge
§ Dunkirk
§ Desert Party
§ Musket Man
v Outstanding based on same factors
§ Pioneer the Nile
§ Fresian Fire
§ Papa Clem
v Special Notes About Non-Eliminated Horses
§ Pioneer the Nile looks almost unbeatable he will certainly be in the money absent exigent circumstances
§ Desert Party and Regal Ransom seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Likewise Musket Man and General Quarters seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Desert Party seems a bit weaker than the others to me for some reason
v Horses who have made big bucks
§ Regal Ransom (no wonder the name), Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, and I want Revenge…..
§ I was surprised that Dunkirk made so little money.
v Based on the other information, blood, and jockeys my picks are:
§ Top 3
¨ Pioneer of the Nile
§ Sire: Empire Maker (Unbridled)
¨ Papa Clem
§ Sire: Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector)
¨ Dunkirk (my best long shot)
§ Sire: Unbridled Song (Unbridled)
§ Dam: Secret Status (A.P. Indy)
§ Other Possibles
¨ Friesian Fire (was one of my original top three but I feel wishy washy)
§ Sire: A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew)
¨ Regal Ransom (Good long-shot?)
¨ I Want Revenge
§ Sire: Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy)
¨ General Quarters
§ Sire: Sky Mesa (Pulpit)
§ Dam: Ecology (Unbridled Song)
§ Others that cannot be eliminated
¨ Chocolate Candy
§ Dam: Crownett (Seattle Slew)
¨ Musket Man
§ Yonaguska (Cherokee Run)