Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[philcski]

When was the last time the "wise guy" horse actually WON the Derby? Or even hit the board???

And I don't want to hear Monarchos because he was a strong contender all season.

[slotdirt]

I don't know, how did Bandini work out in '05?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, how did Bandini work out in '05?

People clearly have different definitions of "wise guy" horses, but personally I wouldn't classify a horse coming in off of a dominant win like Bandini had in the Bluegrass that year as a "wise guy" horse. Typically, when it comes to the Derby, I think wise guy horses are horses that did not win their final derby "prep" race, but the wise guys believe they have found a logical reason why that happened which is unlikely to repeat itself in the Derby. For me, it doesn't mean the same thing as simply an overbet horse.
To me, Desert Party fits the model more than any others this year. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Go for Gin was a wise guy horse coming off two major against the track losses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by miraja2

People clearly have different definitions of "wise guy" horses, but personally I wouldn't classify a horse coming in off of a dominant win like Bandini had in the Bluegrass that year as a "wise guy" horse. Typically, when it comes to the Derby, I think wise guy horses are horses that did not win their final derby "prep" race, but the wise guys believe they have found a logical reason why that happened which is unlikely to repeat itself in the Derby. For me, it doesn't mean the same thing as simply an overbet horse.
To me, Desert Party fits the model more than any others this year. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win.

Noble Causeway was without a doubt the wiseguy horse in that field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

And I don't want to hear Monarchos because he was a strong contender all season.

Monarchos wasn't bet much at all in the Derby considering his good races in the Fla Derby and Wood.

That was by far the deepest Kentucky Derby field this decade ... and that complete no talent bum Dollar Bill was somehow the 2nd choice in the Derby betting after getting drubbed by like 8 lengths to Millenium Wind in the Blue Grass ... and losing to Fifty Stars with a massively overrated "bad trip" his start prior.

A classic example of a total slowpoke with not so cleverly disguised darkened form ... getting bet like mad into the teeth of many wildly superior horses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Monarchos wasn't bet much at all in the Derby considering his good races in the Fla Derby and Wood.

That was by far the deepest Kentucky Derby field this decade ... and that complete no talent bum Dollar Bill was somehow the 2nd choice in the Derby betting after getting drubbed by like 8 lengths to Millenium Wind in the Blue Grass ... and losing to Fifty Stars with a massively overrated "bad trip" his start prior.

A classic example of a total slowpoke with not so cleverly disguised darkened form ... getting bet like mad into the teeth of many wildly superior horses.

He did pay over $20, but I recall a lot of unwarranted "wise guy" talk about him for whatever reason. I figured him to be a solid contender in a solid race. Dollar Bill was unquestionably the wise guy choise of the millenium in that race. Whether it was the deepest field this decade is debatable, it certainly was better than 2000, 2005, 2008; probably better than 2002, 2006, and 2007, and at least comparable to 2003, 2004, and this year.

Go For Gin would have been the last legitimate "wise guy" selection that won IMO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Like seven or eight of the horses coming into the Derby Dollar Bill's year had a race or two that made them look like friggin beasts.

I realize a lot of them weren't the type who figured to enjoy a fast paced 10 furlong race .. but the year was loaded to the gills with talented sharp horses.

I don't think it's debatable at all. That was the most impressive group coming into the Derby.

[Sightseek]

Point Determined? I can't remember what he went off at, but I thought it was low.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Point Determined? I can't remember what he went off at, but I thought it was low.

He was 9/1 ... the slug I bet that year was A P Warrior.

They had a brilliant stretch battle in the Affirmed Handicap next out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Go For Gin would have been the last legitimate "wise guy" selection that won IMO.

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

I disagree completely. That race fell apart. There was nothing wiseguy about that horse...A wiseguy horse is bet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I disagree completely. That race fell apart. There was nothing wiseguy about that horse...A wiseguy horse is bet.

He was basically viewed by many as the most likely horse to win the Derby coming into that years 3yo season.

He was a lightly raced horse with a strong closing 2nd to that years 2yo champion - while beating that years BC Juvenile winner in his final 2yo start.

He was five wide on both turns against a speed biased track and still ran a 98 Beyer in the Sham.

He was 2nd in the stakes record San Felipe run over an INSANELY fast track that was carrying speed.

And he was 4th in the merry-go-round like Santa Anita Derby that was a total slow early-fast late race shape.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was basically viewed by many as the most likely horse to win the Derby coming into that years 3yo season.

He was a lightly raced horse with a strong closing 2nd to that years 2yo champion - while beating that years BC Juvenile winner in his final 2yo start.

He was five wide on both turns against a speed biased track and still ran a 98 Beyer in the Sham.

He was 2nd in the stakes record San Felipe run over an INSANELY fast track that was carrying speed.

And he was 4th in the merry-go-round like Santa Anita Derby that was a total slow early-fast late race shape.

Apparently you aren't understanding the definition of a wise guy horse...Revisionist history doesn't help your argument. 50-1 doesn't make a wise guy horse ever. Someone will always make a case for all 20 horses in a field. It doesn't mean anything. Buzz creates wise guy horses. And Giacomo had the buzz of crickets....some said include in a super. And that's that.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Like seven or eight of the horses coming into the Derby Dollar Bill's year had a race or two that made them look like friggin beasts.

I realize a lot of them weren't the type who figured to enjoy a fast paced 10 furlong race .. but the year was loaded to the gills with talented sharp horses.

I don't think it's debatable at all. That was the most impressive group coming into the Derby.

Tell me about it. I LOVED Congaree in that race. He just wasn't quite up for 10F with that crazy pace.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

True, bad trips, working well, etc. but honestly the ONLY person- anywhere- that I heard talking him up was Rudolph, and I went to that Derby (zero chatter on track. All Noble Causeway.) I think a qualification of being a wise guy horse is actually getting bet.

[slotdirt]

I believe our boy Kasept talked him up - as well as Closing Argument - in his immediate pre-Derby selections.