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#1
04-22-2009, 04:56 PM
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Today's best...
I Want Revenge 4.25 TheGreek Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes Papa Clem 22 5Dimes Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes Desert Party 26 5Dimes Musket Man 33 5Dimes Square Eddie 38 5Dimes Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 33 5Dimes West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 40.5 TheGreek Summer Bird 30 Bookmaker Win Willy 40.5 TheGreek Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex The 4.5-1 on IWR at wsex is gone. TheGreek dropped its odds on Regal Ransom and Square Eddie without raising odds on any other horse. I added Summer Bird, Win Willy and Mr. Hot Stuff to my list to make it consistent with the sticky "likely derby starters" thread. Dropped Charitable Man. The takeout from this list of 21 horses is 10.5%, but about 6% of that is due to ridiculously low odds on Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff. Bookmaker was the only sportsbook I checked that had odds on Summer Bird. Only Bookmaker and wsex have odds on Mr. Hot Stuff. Then again, Bookmaker still has odds up on The Pamplemousse, and wsex still has odds up on Nicanor (a juicy 60-1!) --Dunbar Edit: I didn't include Wynn Las Vegas odds today because I can't be sure the odds from Monday's sheet are still available.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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#2
04-23-2009, 10:32 AM
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Today's best...
I Want Revenge 4.25 5dimes Dunkirk 6.5 5dimes Quality Road 6.25 TheGreek Friesan Fire 8.5 5dimes Pioneer of the Nile 9 5dimes Papa Clem 25 5dimes Chocolate Candy 24 5dimes Desert Party 26 5dimes Musket Man 33 5dimes Square Eddie 38 5dimes Hold Me Back 33 5dimes General Quarters 30.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 33 5dimes West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek Mine That Bird 60.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 40.5 TheGreek Summer Bird 30.5 TheGreek Win Willy 52.5 TheGreek Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex 5Dimes is offering odds on just 15 horses, but it has the highest odds on 11 of those 15. They lowered their odds on QR, but what I like is that they raised the odds on POTN, FF, and several others. Some books act like the only direction on odds is down. I don't remember 5Dimes being so competitive with horse futures before. The above 21-horse odds line has a takeout (vig) of 8.4%. The real takeout from these odds is 8.4% plus the chance some horse not on the list wins the Derby. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#3
04-23-2009, 08:38 PM
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I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1 Giant Oak 24-1 I Want Revenge 54-1 West Side Bernie 40-1 In the Exacta Pool I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2. Chocolate Candy 29-1 Friesan Fire 8-1 I Want Revenge 10-1 West Side Bernie 43-1
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In the Picnic area at Monmouth Park. Haskell 2008
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#4
04-23-2009, 08:46 PM
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#5
04-23-2009, 10:01 PM
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#7
04-24-2009, 09:12 AM
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--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#8
04-24-2009, 09:46 AM
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Looking even better.
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#9
04-25-2009, 05:47 PM
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TheGreek now has Quality Road at 10.14 to 1.
5Dimes doesn't have odds up today. Neither does wsex. Pinnacle has odds on Snooker, Chess, and the London Marathon, but not the Derby. I'm in Las Vegas, so I included odds from the Hilton ("LVH") and the Plaza, the only 2 racebooks I stopped at today. Today's best future odds: I Want Revenge 4.05 TheGreek Dunkirk 7 LVH Quality Road 10.15 TheGreek Friesan Fire 7 Bookmaker, LVH Pioneer of the Nile 6 LVH Papa Clem 25 LVH Chocolate Candy 20.5 TheGreek Desert Party 16.15 TheGreek Musket Man 25.5 TheGreek Square Eddie 40 LVH Hold Me Back 22.5 TheGreek General Quarters 35.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 35 Plaza West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 75 Plaza Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 60.5 TheGreek Summer Bird 60 Plaza Win Willy 52.5 TheGreek Mr. Hot Stuff 40 LVH Together these make a -10.2% line. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#10
05-01-2009, 10:33 AM
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Pinnacle has put up a Derby future odds line. Its odds come pretty close to matching CD's 16% takeout. But with help from TheGreek and 5Dimes, the combined line has a takeout of 8.1%:
1 W.Side Bernie 52.5 Greek 2 Musket Man 28.5 Greek 3 Mr Hot Stuff 40.19 Pinnacle 4 Advice 40.5 Greek 5 Hold Me Back 28.27 Pinnacle 6 Friesan Fire 6.21 Pinnacle 7 Papa Clem 20.5 Greek 8 Mine That Bird 200 Pinnacle 9 Join in the Dance 111.86 Pinnacle 10 Regal Ransom 19.61 Pinnacle 11 Choc Candy 20.46 Pinnacle 12 Gen Quarters 28.15 Pinnacle 13 I Want Revenge 3.25 5Dimes 14 Atomic Rain 102.5 Greek 15 Dunkirk 5.45 Greek 16 POTN 6.21 Pinnacle 17 SummerBird 55 5Dimes 18 NowhereHide 200 Pinnacle 19 Desert Party 17.92 Pinnacle 20 Fly Private 100 5Dimes fwiw, TheGreek has IWR at 3-1; Pinnacle has 2.7-1. Pinnacle has the best odds on 11 horses, TheGreek on 6 horses, and 5Dimes on 3. Neither wsex nor Bookmaker have future odds (wsex has a lot of matchups, though). I didn't check any other books for futures. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#11
05-02-2009, 01:03 PM
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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