|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
04-21-2009, 10:41 AM
|
||||
|
||||
9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.
|
|
#2
04-21-2009, 01:07 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
I think IWR goes off at 7/2 or 4/1 (right around $10.00) and QR goes off at 5/1 or 11/2. I could see Regal Ransom at under 40-1 on the tote as well. For sake of argument, here's what I see it at a 16% takeout (with the top 20 in earnings expected to go): Horse odds I Want Revenge 3.70 Quality Road 5.40 Pioneerof the Nile 7.50 Dunkirk 8.40 Friesan Fire 10.90 General Quarters 16.90 Papa Clem 18.60 Square Eddie 19.40 Regal Ransom 22.00 Desert Party 22.00 Musket Man 23.70 Hold Me Back 27.10 Chocolate Candy 27.90 West Side Bernie 29.60 Win Willy 33.90 Advice 42.40 Mr. Hot Stuff 63.70 Summer Bird 63.70 Mine That Bird 67.90 Flying Private 67.90
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you Last edited by philcski : 04-21-2009 at 01:30 PM.
|
|
#4
04-21-2009, 04:39 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Chocolate Candy at 27.9 : 1 even with a personal favorite of mine Mike Smith aboard would be attractive if he went off in the same ball park on the day of the derby. He's the best overlay on the list in my opinion, if you like POTN best not to forget him.
|
|
#5
04-22-2009, 04:56 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Today's best...
I Want Revenge 4.25 TheGreek Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes Papa Clem 22 5Dimes Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes Desert Party 26 5Dimes Musket Man 33 5Dimes Square Eddie 38 5Dimes Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 33 5Dimes West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 40.5 TheGreek Summer Bird 30 Bookmaker Win Willy 40.5 TheGreek Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex The 4.5-1 on IWR at wsex is gone. TheGreek dropped its odds on Regal Ransom and Square Eddie without raising odds on any other horse. I added Summer Bird, Win Willy and Mr. Hot Stuff to my list to make it consistent with the sticky "likely derby starters" thread. Dropped Charitable Man. The takeout from this list of 21 horses is 10.5%, but about 6% of that is due to ridiculously low odds on Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff. Bookmaker was the only sportsbook I checked that had odds on Summer Bird. Only Bookmaker and wsex have odds on Mr. Hot Stuff. Then again, Bookmaker still has odds up on The Pamplemousse, and wsex still has odds up on Nicanor (a juicy 60-1!) --Dunbar Edit: I didn't include Wynn Las Vegas odds today because I can't be sure the odds from Monday's sheet are still available.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
|
|
#6
04-23-2009, 10:32 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Today's best...
I Want Revenge 4.25 5dimes Dunkirk 6.5 5dimes Quality Road 6.25 TheGreek Friesan Fire 8.5 5dimes Pioneer of the Nile 9 5dimes Papa Clem 25 5dimes Chocolate Candy 24 5dimes Desert Party 26 5dimes Musket Man 33 5dimes Square Eddie 38 5dimes Hold Me Back 33 5dimes General Quarters 30.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 33 5dimes West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek Mine That Bird 60.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 40.5 TheGreek Summer Bird 30.5 TheGreek Win Willy 52.5 TheGreek Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex 5Dimes is offering odds on just 15 horses, but it has the highest odds on 11 of those 15. They lowered their odds on QR, but what I like is that they raised the odds on POTN, FF, and several others. Some books act like the only direction on odds is down. I don't remember 5Dimes being so competitive with horse futures before. The above 21-horse odds line has a takeout (vig) of 8.4%. The real takeout from these odds is 8.4% plus the chance some horse not on the list wins the Derby. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
|
|
#7
04-23-2009, 08:38 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1 Giant Oak 24-1 I Want Revenge 54-1 West Side Bernie 40-1 In the Exacta Pool I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2. Chocolate Candy 29-1 Friesan Fire 8-1 I Want Revenge 10-1 West Side Bernie 43-1
__________________
In the Picnic area at Monmouth Park. Haskell 2008
|
Hybrid Mode
