Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

Best odds this morning:

I Want Revenge 4.5 World Sports Exch
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 40.5 TheGreek
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 40.5 TheGreek
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Charitable Man 85.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek

Odds have dropped on IWR and Musket Man, otherwise no change from yesterday. I removed Take the Points from the list because Pletcher said he is unlikely to enter.

--Dunbar

Effective "takeout" is 2.8% plus chance some other horse wins.

[Dunbar]

Wynn Las Vegas beats that list with these horses:

Quality Road 7-1
Flying Private 75-1
Atomic Rain 125-1

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

Agree- I highly doubt either go off at those prices in 11 days. I guess they're offering a point for time value.

I think IWR goes off at 7/2 or 4/1 (right around $10.00) and QR goes off at 5/1 or 11/2.

I could see Regal Ransom at under 40-1 on the tote as well.

For sake of argument, here's what I see it at a 16% takeout (with the top 20 in earnings expected to go):

Horse odds
I Want Revenge 3.70
Quality Road 5.40
Pioneerof the Nile 7.50
Dunkirk 8.40
Friesan Fire 10.90
General Quarters 16.90
Papa Clem 18.60
Square Eddie 19.40
Regal Ransom 22.00
Desert Party 22.00
Musket Man 23.70
Hold Me Back 27.10
Chocolate Candy 27.90
West Side Bernie 29.60
Win Willy 33.90
Advice 42.40
Mr. Hot Stuff 63.70
Summer Bird 63.70
Mine That Bird 67.90
Flying Private 67.90

[jms62]

Got QRoad at 6-1 pool 3, Musket Man at 25-1 pool 3 and General Quarters at 75-1 on Bodog prior to his Keeneland win

[CSC]

Chocolate Candy at 27.9 : 1 even with a personal favorite of mine Mike Smith aboard would be attractive if he went off in the same ball park on the day of the derby. He's the best overlay on the list in my opinion, if you like POTN best not to forget him.

[Dunbar]

Today's best...

I Want Revenge 4.25 TheGreek
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 38 5Dimes
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 33 5Dimes
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek
Summer Bird 30 Bookmaker
Win Willy 40.5 TheGreek
Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex

The 4.5-1 on IWR at wsex is gone. TheGreek dropped its odds on Regal Ransom and Square Eddie without raising odds on any other horse.

I added Summer Bird, Win Willy and Mr. Hot Stuff to my list to make it consistent with the sticky "likely derby starters" thread. Dropped Charitable Man.

The takeout from this list of 21 horses is 10.5%, but about 6% of that is due to ridiculously low odds on Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff. Bookmaker was the only sportsbook I checked that had odds on Summer Bird. Only Bookmaker and wsex have odds on Mr. Hot Stuff. Then again, Bookmaker still has odds up on The Pamplemousse, and wsex still has odds up on Nicanor (a juicy 60-1!)

--Dunbar

Edit: I didn't include Wynn Las Vegas odds today because I can't be sure the odds from Monday's sheet are still available.