I see big gaps back to 3rd.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I'd like to know your odds of neither of those 2 horses being in the trifecta if you are so sure they that much better than the rest of the group.

I think for that to happen - both will have to run non-efforts or have very bad trips.

It still is horse racing - and even with magicians training them - that's always a possibility. I just think it's a not a very big possiblity ... and I see 18 under-lays opposing them .. of which none have a chance without significant improvment over the next 3 weeks assuming the top two run a similar effort to their two most recent races.

[gales0678]

what makes these guys magicians , i thought they were horse trainers can you elaborate please?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

what makes these guys magicians , i thought they were horse trainers can you elaborate please?

Jimmy Jerkens started training horses on his own in 1997. He's had a grand total of 2,343 starters and he shows a flat bet profit with them. It's basically almost unheard of stuff.

For a comparison - Todd Pletcher started training horses in 1996. He shows a career 17% loss on the betting dollar ... what most good trainers show.


As for Mullins ...

He started 4,577 horses since 1996 and he amazingly shows a flat bet profit. He's probably God's gift to training horses.

Perhaps the greatest training achievment was him winning back-to-back-to-back Santa Anita Derby's earlier this decade with three horrendously mediocre horses.

* Here's Buddy Gil running 7th at 7/1 in the Golden Gate Derby in '03....



Less than three months later he won the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


* Here's Castledale running 6th at 11/1 odds in the San Rafael in '04



Less than a month later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins next out.


* Here's Buzzard's Bay running 10th at 18/1 odds in the worst Risen Star Stakes of all-time.



Less than two months later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


Mullins and Jimmy Jerkens are not guys you want to dismiss when they have the best horse.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Jimmy Jerkens started training horses on his own in 1997. He's had a grand total of 2,343 starters and he shows a flat bet profit with them. It's basically almost unheard of stuff.

For a comparison - Todd Pletcher started training horses in 1996. He shows a career 17% loss on the betting dollar ... what most good trainers show.


As for Mullins ...

He started 4,577 horses since 1996 and he amazingly shows a flat bet profit. He's probably God's gift to training horses.

Perhaps the greatest training achievment was him winning back-to-back-to-back Santa Anita Derby's earlier this decade with three horrendously mediocre horses.

* Here's Buddy Gil running 7th at 7/1 in the Golden Gate Derby in '03....



Less than three months later he won the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


* Here's Castledale running 6th at 11/1 odds in the San Rafael in '04



Less than a month later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins next out.


* Here's Buzzard's Bay running 10th at 18/1 odds in the worst Risen Star Stakes of all-time.



Less than two months later he wins the Santa Anita Derby for Mullins.


Mullins and Jimmy Jerkens are not guys you want to dismiss when they have the best horse.

Drugs - what are Pletchers total startes from '96 on?

Also he must be pretty good , he had a filly win the oaks and the belmont stakes in the same year

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

[gales0678]

so roughly over the same time he has started around 4x more horses than Jerkins and 2x more horses than Mullins

What are Jimmy's and jeff's stats at 10f in stakes races at CD , for fun's sake what are the chief's at CD in stakes races at 10f?

Was it Todd's fault that he ran into a monster in the derby a couple of year's ago when bluegrass cat ran 2nd? Are we to believe that one of the 2 magicians would have gotten Bluegrass Cat into the winner's circle that day?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

but after dunkirk he'll be 1-24. seriously, he'll be 0-24.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but after dunkirk he'll be 1-24. seriously, he'll be 0-24.

You're all anti-Dunkirk but not pro nobody else. Being anti is easy, pro is not.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Slightly over 10K.

He's 0-for-23 in all 10 furlongs dirt stakes at Churchill Downs.

so we are talking less than 1% of his total startes in his lifetime , do you think this sample size is big eneough to get an accuarte picture of the trainer's ablilty ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

so we are talking less than 1% of his total startes in his lifetime , do you think this sample size is big eneough to get an accuarte picture of the trainer's ablilty ?

No it's not.

I wish there was a way I could buy a bottle of tard repellent to spray on myself and make you go away.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by gales0678

what makes these guys magicians , i thought they were horse trainers can you elaborate please?

Didn't you hear? They are sitting in for Penn & Teller while they are on vacation...