Blue Grass & Ark Derby

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I believe he was lucky in that the pace was as strong as it was - yes.

The vast majority of people will tell you the trip IWR had in the Wood was worse than the one GQ had in the Tampa Derby .. and they'd be bigtime wrong. All because of the pace each horse had in front of him.

Obviously it doesn't mean GQ's Tampa Derby performance was better than IWR's Wood performance - because IWR ran about 20 points faster.

No doubt. The only difference is that you're looking at the races in terms of numeric pace while I'm considering the shape/dynamics. I'm not sure that there's a one2one (and onto) relationship between these two but they do concur in the case of the Wood. The poor break and the patient ride allowed IWR to last move a tired field.

GQ's last race is not as transparent as one would want in the charts but the replay shows that he got the worst of it. Of course, he also wiped-out the field in the Sam Davis (as did the runner up in the Blue Grass in his previous start).

Using the Fat Charts and replays can be revealing.
Some of those straight lines he draws
(or should I say Excel draws) at the different
calls are not in reality straight, but if you couple those with
the replays it is usually obvious.

Its a good visual organizer along with the replays.
For those that dont take to straight numbers.

[Bobby Fischer]

IWR's Wood isn't all that clear cut.

Clearly IWR and 'Bernie got the best set-ups

The field in the Wood was awful for a grade 1. Imperial Council was the only one who figured to have a chance to have any talent, and he ran like a total dud

IWR won easily , but it isn't all that clear cut.

I think he is one of the top Derby Horses and will bet accordingly, but if he no-shows I won't be shocked