Circular Quay

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

Exceptional workers in who's opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Exceptional workers in whose opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

Thanks Rupert. That was a great and educational response.

Rupert I will ask my clocker if hes seen this horse work. Do you remember what he looks like? Color and any markings that distinguish him?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert I will ask my clocker if hes seen this horse work. Do you remember what he looks like? Color and any markings that distinguish him?

The Red Bullet was a chestnut colt with some white on his face. He is out of a mare named Sookloozy. I know they shipped him to NY after the sale but he could be on the farm right now for all I know.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Red Bullet was a chestnut colt with some white on his face. He is out of a mare named Sookloozy. I know they shipped him to NY after the sale but he could be on the farm right now for all I know.

Well that will make it easy enough. I'll ask him if hes seen a Harty chestnut with white on the face. Those chestnuts stand out pretty good. I'll let you know if he has seen him or if not, when he actually does Rupert.