Wknd Beyers: Quality Road 103; Big Drama 109

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'll let our own 'speed boys' delve deepest, but those figures make perfect sense and show the track was a little faster than par. Dunkirk's # is rignt in line with his last, and Quality Road regressed logically on the initial two turn try off the huge one turn effort. What's the issue?

Feels a little low to me. Ran the numbers using Beyer's projection method and there's two ways to look at it IMO, both leaving out the Fl Derby.

(1) take the average of all the variants not including the Fl Derby. I get:
R1: 102 Just Ben (85 Mighty Score)
R2: 88 Santana Six
R3: 55 Senor Leche
R5: 86 Glitterman's Cartel (85 Nicanor)
R7: 100 Vitruvius (97 Groomedforvictory)
R9: 113 Big Drama (112 This One's for Phil)
R10: 110 Quality Road (107 Dunkirk)
R12: 68 Jacoby's Run

(2) Leave out the outlier, R12, which could be just as dreadful as the time indicated (the winner was 4-1 coming off a 4 length defeat in a $80k MCL...) which drops every race by 2 points.

It seems to me that everything fell pretty much into line except the last race (the variant range were a very tight 12 to 20 from the raw figures), which is why I don't understand why it's 5-7 points lower than what I get.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not an easy figure because it was the days only two turn dirt route race.

I projected a 106 figure for the race. I can see a 103 though. The five horses who raced close to the pace in the 7 horse field - including the winner - all made double digit backward moves .. while the two deep closers in the race ran slight new career tops.

Certainly not the type of thing you expect to see on a track like that when the raw pace number came back 11 points slower than the raw final.

[justindew]

Quality Road's BRIS Speed ratings (debut first): 102-97-110-103
Quality Road's Beyer Speed Figures: 101-90-113-103

[Bobby Fischer]

i don't think Quality Road "regressed" a bit, but yea his final time figure should be a little lower than his FOY even though they broke the track record, because the track was so fast.

I know I am talking semantics here.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm sure there are a handful who regressed and went on to win the Derby. I'd be interested to see how many of those were coming off a 113, bounced, but won a G1 anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm sure there are a handful who regressed and went on to win the Derby. I'd be interested to see how many of those were coming off a 113, bounced, but won a G1 anyway.

Secretariat?

[Linny]

Why didn't GP card any other 9f dirt races on Fla Derby day? It has to be pretty hard to assign a fig when the G1 is the only race at the distance on the card. Isn't that why they always used to card that 1 1/2 mile starter on the Belmont card?