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#1
03-29-2009, 09:22 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#3
03-29-2009, 09:41 AM
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Quality Road's performance yesterday, in terms of pattern development, was nearly identical to his ALW regression (90) after the MSW win (101): FOY (113) to the FL Derby (103). Consecutive pattern: 101-90-113-103.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 03-29-2009 at 09:56 AM.
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#4
03-29-2009, 09:43 AM
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I went back to old Derby winner charts because I thought in my mind there were a few winners who regressed in their prep, and then moved forward again for the Derby. But really only a few did, and they're minor examples (Monarchos did and so did Smarty Jones, but Smarty Jones only did it with one point. Street Sense did, but it was poly).
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#5
03-29-2009, 09:55 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
03-29-2009, 10:16 AM
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#7
03-29-2009, 09:58 AM
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So are you saying he's sitting on a 125, or have I taken too many of those online IQ tests?
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__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#8
03-29-2009, 09:35 AM
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#9
03-29-2009, 10:01 AM
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(1) take the average of all the variants not including the Fl Derby. I get: R1: 102 Just Ben (85 Mighty Score) R2: 88 Santana Six R3: 55 Senor Leche R5: 86 Glitterman's Cartel (85 Nicanor) R7: 100 Vitruvius (97 Groomedforvictory) R9: 113 Big Drama (112 This One's for Phil) R10: 110 Quality Road (107 Dunkirk) R12: 68 Jacoby's Run (2) Leave out the outlier, R12, which could be just as dreadful as the time indicated (the winner was 4-1 coming off a 4 length defeat in a $80k MCL...) which drops every race by 2 points. It seems to me that everything fell pretty much into line except the last race (the variant range were a very tight 12 to 20 from the raw figures), which is why I don't understand why it's 5-7 points lower than what I get.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#10
03-29-2009, 10:21 AM
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Not an easy figure because it was the days only two turn dirt route race.
I projected a 106 figure for the race. I can see a 103 though. The five horses who raced close to the pace in the 7 horse field - including the winner - all made double digit backward moves .. while the two deep closers in the race ran slight new career tops. Certainly not the type of thing you expect to see on a track like that when the raw pace number came back 11 points slower than the raw final.
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#12
03-29-2009, 03:00 PM
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i don't think Quality Road "regressed" a bit, but yea his final time figure should be a little lower than his FOY even though they broke the track record, because the track was so fast.
I know I am talking semantics here.
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#13
03-29-2009, 04:07 PM
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I'm sure there are a handful who regressed and went on to win the Derby. I'd be interested to see how many of those were coming off a 113, bounced, but won a G1 anyway.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#14
03-29-2009, 07:55 PM
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#15
04-02-2009, 01:58 PM
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Hybrid Mode
