3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If both were in the Derby right now, I would probably have to take Dunkirk. For one the Derby pace is going to be much quicker, and Dunkirk's price will probably be a bit higher than their separation in ability.

Dunkirk ran a really good race today - we've said all year how hard it is to close at Gulfstream. He's a very nice race horse. Quality Road is too.

Not happening. The Derby pace is not going to be much quicker than today's pace was, souped up track and all.

Predicting the pace in the Derby is a dangerous game anyway because many people thought the 2004 pace would preclude Smarty Jones from getting a good stalking trip. Quality Road has proven twice now that he can sit just off of a fast pace and finish well. What about that would make anyone not like him in a race like the Derby? He's also maturing with each start and has learned to rate nicely.

Considering Dunkirk won't be in the Derby at this moment, I'd have to see what he does in his final prep if he's in the gate on May 2.

NT

[Travis Stone]

If one is 8-1, the other is 4-1... no thanks. But, depending on what happens out west, there's a chance Dunkirk will be fourth, fifth and maybe even sixth choice. Last year they were 13-1, 17-1, 19-1... Dunkirk at 19-1, versus QR at say 3-1... makes it interesting from a value standpoint. Interesting discussion too for a horse currently not in the race.