3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3)

Bobby Fischer · #1 03-28-2009, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Has a good chance to win the Derby, but it's too deep a year for him to win the T.C.

Belmont is a big stretch but he stamped himself Derby Preakness favorite.

For those who felt Friesan Fire wasn't brilliant enough have a more talented alternative...

SCUDSBROTHER · #2 03-28-2009, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont is a big stretch but he stamped himself Derby Preakness favorite.

For those who felt Friesan Fire wasn't brilliant enough have a more talented alternative...

I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.

TheSpyder · #3 03-28-2009, 05:27 PM

He looked very tired and can't see them wheel him back. If they do and no matter what happens, no way he does well in the Derby. and if by ssome way he does win the Derby, they'll run the horse into the ground going after the TC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.

SCUDSBROTHER · #4 03-28-2009, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

He looked very tired and can't see them wheel him back. If they do and no matter what happens, no way he does well in the Derby. and if by ssome way he does win the Derby, they'll run the horse into the ground going after the TC.

Yea, I think he is gunna need 6 weeks minimum(that's just a gut feeling.) Do they have that?

philcski · #5 03-28-2009, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He's racing essentially the same field, doesn't mean the rest of the crop prepping on the other circuits are no good.

I do expect (hope for?) more out of Imperial Council though.

Thinking Fischer is saying this is a special crop... and I agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I think it's very difficult to say who ran better today. A lack of speed is a problem at Gulfstream. They knew that going in. Fact is that Dunkirk was behind, and still is playing catch up quite well. Maybe they should just accept the fact that they started too late, and aim for one of the other 2 legs. This was a tough race for him. He made a big move on a speed favoring track. It's not just a problem of coming in 2nd. It's how much it took out of him to have to fight that bias.

Scuds on fire today.

NTamm1215 · #6 03-28-2009, 07:38 PM

I thought the track was significantly more speed-favoring on Holy Bull day. The inside was certainly good, but the inside is good at GP quite often.

If Dunkirk apologists are blaming the track, that's fine, more power to them.

NT

#7 03-28-2009, 08:07 PM

There are plenty of opportunities to get into the derby. Let Pletcher cry all he wants. Run your horses and get them in if it means that much to you.

Travis Stone · #8 03-28-2009, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I thought the track was significantly more speed-favoring on Holy Bull day. The inside was certainly good, but the inside is good at GP quite often.

If Dunkirk apologists are blaming the track, that's fine, more power to them.

NT

If both were in the Derby right now, I would probably have to take Dunkirk. For one the Derby pace is going to be much quicker, and Dunkirk's price will probably be a bit higher than their separation in ability.

Dunkirk ran a really good race today - we've said all year how hard it is to close at Gulfstream. He's a very nice race horse. Quality Road is too.

NTamm1215 · #9 03-28-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If both were in the Derby right now, I would probably have to take Dunkirk. For one the Derby pace is going to be much quicker, and Dunkirk's price will probably be a bit higher than their separation in ability.

Dunkirk ran a really good race today - we've said all year how hard it is to close at Gulfstream. He's a very nice race horse. Quality Road is too.

Not happening. The Derby pace is not going to be much quicker than today's pace was, souped up track and all.

Predicting the pace in the Derby is a dangerous game anyway because many people thought the 2004 pace would preclude Smarty Jones from getting a good stalking trip. Quality Road has proven twice now that he can sit just off of a fast pace and finish well. What about that would make anyone not like him in a race like the Derby? He's also maturing with each start and has learned to rate nicely.

Considering Dunkirk won't be in the Derby at this moment, I'd have to see what he does in his final prep if he's in the gate on May 2.

NT

Travis Stone · #10 03-28-2009, 09:21 PM

If one is 8-1, the other is 4-1... no thanks. But, depending on what happens out west, there's a chance Dunkirk will be fourth, fifth and maybe even sixth choice. Last year they were 13-1, 17-1, 19-1... Dunkirk at 19-1, versus QR at say 3-1... makes it interesting from a value standpoint. Interesting discussion too for a horse currently not in the race.

philcski · #11 03-28-2009, 08:44 PM

Pletcher should be whining to Gulfstream about cutting the purse to $750k from a million. That additional $50k will probably be the difference between being on the right side and the wrong side of the cut line.

Cannon Shell · #12 03-28-2009, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You think he's Derby/Preakness favorite already? It's way too early. Quality Road's a very nice horse. But there is a big difference between sitting a dream trip on a bias track in a small field and a 20 horse field Derby Day. I wouldn't want to take too short a price on him, even though he's been nothing short of brilliant so far.

Agreed. JV rode him perfectly today, got him a little breather on the turn and didn't panic when Dunkirk ranged up quickly on him.

Bobby Fischer · #13 03-28-2009, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You think he's Derby/Preakness favorite already? It's way too early. Quality Road's a very nice horse. But there is a big difference between sitting a dream trip on a bias track in a small field and a 20 horse field Derby Day. I wouldn't want to take too short a price on him, even though he's been nothing short of brilliant so far.

I think he's got a real good shot at being the betting favorite barring a freak injury. Not necessarily saying he's "my" favorite.

Sightseek · #14 03-28-2009, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think he's got a real good shot at being the betting favorite barring a freak injury. Not necessarily saying he's "my" favorite.

If I Want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, I think he's the favorite.

Bobby Fischer · #15 03-28-2009, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

If I Want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, I think he's the favorite.

If I want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, where does that rank this crop??

Holy Smokes

Sightseek · #16 03-28-2009, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

If I want Revenge wins like he did in the Gotham, where does that rank this crop??

Holy Smokes

He's racing essentially the same field, doesn't mean the rest of the crop prepping on the other circuits are no good.

I do expect (hope for?) more out of Imperial Council though.

Bobby Fischer · #17 03-28-2009, 05:38 PM

we have a good crop this year.

possibly a very good one