Derby/Oaks Future Wager Pool 2

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Honestly, I totally disagree.

First off, the exacta pool being used as a gauge to whether or not additional horses would be of interest to bettors seems crazy? I see no correlation between an exacta offering insight into potential interest in a 400 horse pool.

Secondly, the appeal of more horses is the prices and diversity. A line-up of 400 horses with some horses at 700-1 will most certainly garner and generate interest.

There is some validity to the thought that the amount of win $ bet on the field and whether or not it would spread to other interests, but in my opinion, it's completely offset by the spark and interest the higher priced horses, larger options and infinite additional options you can generate from it.

How much money will someone bet on a 700-1 horse? $20? Or do they want to win more than $14,000.

Horses beyond the first 23 entries are only known by a very small % of the betting public. You may argue that the serious bettors will show up to bet. Again, though, how much will they bet on a 200-1 shot? Even a serious bettor is not likely to put up more than $50 on a 200-1 shot. Are there 2600 people in the country willing to suddenly show up and make bets like that? Because that's the number you'd need to offset the money that will NOT be bet on All Others. (or 1300 people, if each is going to find 2 horses to bet $50 on.) I don't think there are anywhere near that number.

At best I think it would be a wash in Pool 1. Now in Pool 2, the amount bet on All Others is smaller, so maybe that amount could be offset by opening up the number of entries. In Pool 3 the amount bet on All Others is smaller still, but so is interest in horses beyond the top 23.

--Dunbar