First 2009 March Madness thread

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.

Davidson is dead.

Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.

SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.

Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.

Creighton couldn't afford to lose by 24. Both the teams that wound up in the finals of their league were blown out by MAAC teams in the bracket buster games which doesn't help their case as the #9 conference. They remind me a lot of Illinois St last year, were probably in until they got blown out in their championship. Or the 2006 Missouri St team that washed out in the first round of their conference tourney and missed the tournament with an RPI of 21:

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2008&team=Illinois%20St.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2006&team=Missouri%20St.

I agree with you on Florida and were I picking the teams I'd toss out South Carolina as well. But I have a feeling the committee will put those teams in if they can just win one game in their conference tourney.

Once Siena went 0-3 in the Old Spice they couldn't afford more than one loss in conference. Once they lost that second conference game it pretty much killed them. The big knock on them is the lack of a top 50 win but that would change if they lost tonight to Niagara as they would move up to 46 or 47. They lost by 15 at Niagara and won by 17 against them on their home court. They get the championship game on their home court so really no excuses if they lose (like how UNLV has no excuse if they can't make their tourney finals on their home court). My main worry is that the Big East crew that came in for the semis last night allowed Egemonye to get away with assault with a deadly weapon (his elbows). Siena needs him to get in early foul trouble like he does every other game. If the refs let his elbows and pushing go all night it could be a tough game.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Creighton couldn't afford to lose by 24. Both the teams that wound up in the finals of their league were blown out by MAAC teams in the bracket buster games which doesn't help their case as the #9 conference. They remind me a lot of Illinois St last year, were probably in until they got blown out in their championship. Or the 2006 Missouri St team that washed out in the first round of their conference tourney and missed the tournament with an RPI of 21:

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2008&team=Illinois%20St.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2006&team=Missouri%20St.

I agree with you on Florida and were I picking the teams I'd toss out South Carolina as well. But I have a feeling the committee will put those teams in if they can just win one game in their conference tourney.

Once Siena went 0-3 in the Old Spice they couldn't afford more than one loss in conference. Once they lost that second conference game it pretty much killed them. The big knock on them is the lack of a top 50 win but that would change if they lost tonight to Niagara as they would move up to 46 or 47. They lost by 15 at Niagara and won by 17 against them on their home court. They get the championship game on their home court so really no excuses if they lose (like how UNLV has no excuse if they can't make their tourney finals on their home court). My main worry is that the Big East crew that came in for the semis last night allowed Egemonye to get away with assault with a deadly weapon (his elbows). Siena needs him to get in early foul trouble like he does every other game. If the refs let his elbows and pushing go all night it could be a tough game.

Illinois State in 2008: only 5-5 against the top 100 and just 2-5 against the top 50 (both wins were against non-tournament Creighton.) Their out of conference schedule was dreadful and lost to the only two good teams they played, and threw in a horrible loss to Eastern Michigan in there, plus finished 2nd in the MVC regular season. Lost 3x to Drake, leaving them 0-5 against tournament teams.

Missouri State in 2006: Lost in first round of the MVC tournament in what was essentially a play-in game. Best non-conf win was Wisconsin-Milwaukee @ 52. No bad losses, but just 4-8 against the top 50 and 5-8 against the top 100. Was the 5th team in a conference that in no way would ever get 5 bids (even if they deserved it thanks to the politics of the BCS leagues.) VERY strong bubble that year, Hofstra was probably the team that got most jobbed.

I think Creighton has a much stronger case than both of these teams.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Illinois State in 2008: only 5-5 against the top 100 and just 2-5 against the top 50 (both wins were against non-tournament Creighton.) Their out of conference schedule was dreadful and lost to the only two good teams they played, and threw in a horrible loss to Eastern Michigan in there, plus finished 2nd in the MVC regular season. Lost 3x to Drake, leaving them 0-5 against tournament teams.

Missouri State in 2006: Lost in first round of the MVC tournament in what was essentially a play-in game. Best non-conf win was Wisconsin-Milwaukee @ 52. No bad losses, but just 4-8 against the top 50 and 5-8 against the top 100. Was the 5th team in a conference that in no way would ever get 5 bids (even if they deserved it thanks to the politics of the BCS leagues.) VERY strong bubble that year, Hofstra was probably the team that got most jobbed.

I think Creighton has a much stronger case than both of these teams.

You know if it was up to me I'd throw all the middling majors on the bubble out and throw, Creighton, Siena, Niagara, VCU, and George Mason into those last spots and the tournament would be more exciting from it. But the reality is the committee will throw those middling majors in over a Creighton just like they did with Oregon last year, Stanford in '07, Seton Hall and Alabama in '06, and Iowa St and NC State in '05 who all had horrible non-conference resumes and mediocre conference records.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You know if it was up to me I'd throw all the middling majors on the bubble out and throw, Creighton, Siena, Niagara, VCU, and George Mason into those last spots and the tournament would be more exciting from it. But the reality is the committee will throw those middling majors in over a Creighton just like they did with Oregon last year, Stanford in '07, Seton Hall and Alabama in '06, and Iowa St and NC State in '05 who all had horrible non-conference resumes and mediocre conference records.

i would too, but politics are strong. this year, the middling majors are so absurdly bad they may have to "go out on a limb" and take a creighton and siena over a florida or an 8th big ten team. i am rooting for the MWC to get 4 because that is a dangerous league. they can do some serious damage in the tourney.

at least in '06 when mizzou state didn't get in it was reasonable for the points i laid out... there were other teams in their own league that took the spot.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

i would too, but politics are strong. this year, the middling majors are so absurdly bad they may have to "go out on a limb" and take a creighton and siena over a florida or an 8th big ten team. i am rooting for the MWC to get 4 because that is a dangerous league. they can do some serious damage in the tourney.

at least in '06 when mizzou state didn't get in it was reasonable for the points i laid out... there were other teams in their own league that took the spot.

Never in a million years though did Seton Hall deserve that last spot over Missouri St and Hofstra. And then the CAA and MVC went on to prove how good they were in the NCAA Tourney while Seton Hall got blown out by 20 to Wichita St first round.

[IrishofNDMan]

Honest opinion needed, I will admit that I have been very very dissapointed in ND this basketball season and they def. do not deserve a chance to dance nor are they even being considered. But, what would it take for them to get into consideration...

If they somehow ended up playing some good bball and making the Big East Championship game would that be enough to send them dancing or do they have to win it all?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Honest opinion needed, I will admit that I have been very very dissapointed in ND this basketball season and they def. do not deserve a chance to dance nor are they even being considered. But, what would it take for them to get into consideration...

If they somehow ended up playing some good bball and making the Big East Championship game would that be enough to send them dancing or do they have to win it all?

If they beat Rutgers, West Virginia, Pitt, and then UConn before losing in the finals I think they'd be set. That's asking a lot though and I don't know if just three wins would get it done.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Never in a million years though did Seton Hall deserve that last spot over Missouri St and Hofstra. And then the CAA and MVC went on to prove how good they were in the NCAA Tourney while Seton Hall got blown out by 20 to Wichita St first round.

WSU in that game was the biggest bet I've ever made.

And on top of that, I got some guy to lay me 10-1 that at least 2 teams from the CAA or MVC would make the sweet 16...

[2 Dollar Bill]

Coach Williams better start teaching the Tar Heels some D-fence...or it might be a early exit, since im sure most have the heels going all the way.