2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by justindew

So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard.

The FoY is setting up to be a tricky race imo.

On one hand - it's going to be loaded with horses who are extremely talented sprinter/milers proven capable of running fast for 6-to-7fs ... and if they all run the way they figure to ... the race can absolutely collapse late and make a deep closing winner look a lot better than he is.

On the other hand - let's say the connections of every one of these sharp sprint horses but Notonthesamepage are focusing on avoiding a pace meltdown and commit to extremely patient rate and finish tactics with longer distance races in mind. If that happens - and Notonthesamepage is not pressured and runs back to that insane win on opening day ... it's over. But he's still just not a serious derby horse.

I would think bettors will be skeptical of any winner if the race plays out to either of the extremes...which it might. But I also thought This One's For Phil would be about 20/1 in round #1 of the Derby futures .. and he ended up more than twice that .. so who knows.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

Good post, although I'd be surprised if OF really is a better horse than Hard Spun.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

I don't think the poster was talking about the future wager.

And as for what Jones says, that's nice, but sometimes trainers get it wrong or exaggerate, and that's why I prefer to judge on what I see. Didn't Bob Baffert say Indian Blessing's brother was the best horse he's ever had or something? Sometimes they're just BS'ing, sometimes they're wrong.

Old Fashioned might turn out to be awesome, but it's super early to call him the deserving Derby favorite (if you're not talking about the future wager) with two more months of preps to run. Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.

Understood. But this site is called derbytrail. I'm surprised there aren't 150 threads spouting the merits of different contenders, even at this early date. As a matter of fact, I think I'll start one now.

[Linny]

The Afleet Alex tangent begun with the question of a colt winning a G1 sprint and nearly winning the 10f KY Derby. Did Alex win a G1 sprint? I know he won a sprint early at 3 (Mountain Valley?) but it was ungraded. Did he win the Hopeful or something?
I think that Hard Spun's excellent TC campaign followed up with a G1 sprint win (later followed by two good routes against major horses) is better than Alex's 3yo campaign, though Alex did have to stop after the Belmont.
More Than Ready was nowhere near as versatile as Hard Spun though he did surprise me with his Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

Understood. But this site is called derbytrail. I'm surprised there aren't 150 threads spouting the merits of different contenders, even at this early date. As a matter of fact, I think I'll start one now.

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.