2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

ateamstupid · #1 02-16-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

Old Fashioned ran a very strong race this afternoon. He showed his class by running Silver City's game. He pressed stroong fractions and blew past him and won by over 3 lengths.

It was the horses first race in three months and if there was a race he could be vulnerable this was it. I think we have a legit Derby favorite. If he matures during the next few months he's a horse that perhaps we can get excited about in the TC races.

The Fountain of Youth will do a lot more for determining the Derby favorite than today's race did. The way that field is shaping up, people would be insane to take Old Fashioned over anything more than a nose winner of the FOY. As for him being a Triple Crown possibility, even if he's good enough, he's by Unbridled's Song. To me, every start with a US three-year-old is like Russian Roulette. He's got a LONG way to go.

pick4 · #2 02-16-2009, 09:30 PM

The Derby is a long ways out. Everything will sort itself out during the next few months. I think Old Fashioned is a serious racehorse. But I'm looking forward to seeing Hello Broadway run two turns as I think he has talent and will improve with natural maturation and running long. Danger To Society ran a clunker in the Holy Bull but he ran well prior to that debacle. He wouldn't be the first horse to run a dud and come back to make his mark on the Derby Trail.

Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

lostcode · #3 02-16-2009, 09:35 PM

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

Danzig · #4 02-16-2009, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

has he run a mile, or around two turns yet? maybe some think he should have by now, if he hasn't. i haven't been paying him much attention, so i honestly don't know what he has done as yet.

Sightseek · #5 02-16-2009, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

I just can't picture Shug rolling the dice like Dutrow did and entering Imperial Council in the FL Derby and then the Derby. Who knows though? It's a different world now with Derby preps.

lostcode · #6 02-16-2009, 09:46 PM

It is a whole new world. I think allowance and then wood or Gotham and wood. Shug is cautious but why even start training him late in December if he's thinking Belmont or Travers? You can't train all spring for the Belmont.

Danzig · #7 02-16-2009, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

The Derby is a long ways out. Everything will sort itself out during the next few months. I think Old Fashioned is a serious racehorse. But I'm looking forward to seeing Hello Broadway run two turns as I think he has talent and will improve with natural maturation and running long. Danger To Society ran a clunker in the Holy Bull but he ran well prior to that debacle. He wouldn't be the first horse to run a dud and come back to make his mark on the Derby Trail.
Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

now that is true. i remember when a certain horse ran a clunker, the trainer explained why the horse ran badly, and was attacked by many. yeah, sure, he had a lung infection....
afleet alex came back well from that debacle...

pick4 · #8 02-16-2009, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

now that is true. i remember when a certain horse ran a clunker, the trainer explained why the horse ran badly, and was attacked by many. yeah, sure, he had a lung infection....
afleet alex came back well from that debacle...

Here's the pp's of the the Derby winners from 1992 to 2008.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...rbywinners.pdf

Antitrust32 · #9 02-17-2009, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

Here's the pp's of the the Derby winners from 1992 to 2008.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...rbywinners.pdf

Out of all those Derby winners listed, only two horses ever won 10 or more races in their career.

Silver Charm and Funny Cide.

six horses on that list only started 10 times or less.

lemoncrush · #10 02-17-2009, 08:02 AM

well, one thing was evident in this race to me.

Poltergeist ran like.....well, ran like a Texas bred.

I expected more from him, especially with a sharp, recent win going two turns over the track.

Travis Stone · #11 02-17-2009, 08:08 AM

The 2009 Southwest has officially become the most over-analyzed race in the Derby Trail Prep History.

ateamstupid · #12 02-16-2009, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

Quality Road, Capt. Candyman Can, Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, Beethoven, Theregoesjojo, Taqarub, Break Water Edison and Jack Spratt.

justindew · #13 02-17-2009, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The Fountain of Youth will do a lot more for determining the Derby favorite than today's race did. The way that field is shaping up, people would be insane to take Old Fashioned over anything more than a nose winner of the FOY. As for him being a Triple Crown possibility, even if he's good enough, he's by Unbridled's Song. To me, every start with a US three-year-old is like Russian Roulette. He's got a LONG way to go.

So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

ateamstupid · #14 02-17-2009, 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

The Indomitable DrugS · #15 02-17-2009, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard.

The FoY is setting up to be a tricky race imo.

On one hand - it's going to be loaded with horses who are extremely talented sprinter/milers proven capable of running fast for 6-to-7fs ... and if they all run the way they figure to ... the race can absolutely collapse late and make a deep closing winner look a lot better than he is.

On the other hand - let's say the connections of every one of these sharp sprint horses but Notonthesamepage are focusing on avoiding a pace meltdown and commit to extremely patient rate and finish tactics with longer distance races in mind. If that happens - and Notonthesamepage is not pressured and runs back to that insane win on opening day ... it's over. But he's still just not a serious derby horse.

I would think bettors will be skeptical of any winner if the race plays out to either of the extremes...which it might. But I also thought This One's For Phil would be about 20/1 in round #1 of the Derby futures .. and he ended up more than twice that .. so who knows.

hailrazer · #16 02-17-2009, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

Sightseek · #17 02-17-2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

Good post, although I'd be surprised if OF really is a better horse than Hard Spun.

ateamstupid · #18 02-17-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

I don't think the poster was talking about the future wager.

And as for what Jones says, that's nice, but sometimes trainers get it wrong or exaggerate, and that's why I prefer to judge on what I see. Didn't Bob Baffert say Indian Blessing's brother was the best horse he's ever had or something? Sometimes they're just BS'ing, sometimes they're wrong.

Old Fashioned might turn out to be awesome, but it's super early to call him the deserving Derby favorite (if you're not talking about the future wager) with two more months of preps to run. Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

hailrazer · #19 02-17-2009, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

ateamstupid · #20 02-17-2009, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hailrazer

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.